US Strategy Weekly: Inflation Basics

The past week has been filled with global events, although none as historic as the sudden passing of Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain on September 8 at the age of 96. She was Britain’s longest-reigning monarch, who guided her country for decades with grace and diplomacy, held an audience with 15 British Prime Ministers and spanned a timeframe that included 14 US presidents, from Harry Truman to Joe Biden. Closer to home, Ken Starr, lead prosecutor in the Clinton-Lewinsky investigation which led to the impeachment of President Bill Clinton, died at age 76.  

Ukraine regained ground in the Russia/Ukraine conflict in what could be a pivotal shift in momentum in the war. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeastern part of the country made impressive gains and, in some cases, pushed Russian soldiers back behind the Russian border. President Zelensky reported that his troops captured more territory in the last week than Russia did in the last five months. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to find a diplomatic solution as soon as possible, based upon a ceasefire, complete withdrawal of Russian troops, and respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. This is a developing situation that could have significant implications for geopolitical and economic events in the months ahead.

Peiter “Mudge” Zatko, a famed hacker who served as Twitter’s (TWTR – $41.74) head of security until his firing in January, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week in what could also be a turning point for both Twitter and Elon Musk. Zatko said that in the week before he was fired from Twitter, he learned the FBI told the company that an agent of China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), the country’s main espionage agency, was on the payroll at Twitter. “This was a big internal conundrum,” according to Zatko since China is Twitter’s fastest growing overseas market for ad revenue. Musk and Twitter head to trial next month to determine whether the billionaire’s $44 billion takeover deal should be completed.

In an odd bit of timing, President Joe Biden celebrated his $430 billion climate change and drug pricing bill, mislabeled as, The Inflation Reduction Act, on the same day that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation did not decline in August as expected but in fact rose 0.1%. This squashed burgeoning hopes that inflation was cooling. All three major stock indices turned sharply lower and notched their biggest one-day loss since the throes of the pandemic in June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,276.37 points, or 3.94%, to 31,104.97, the S&P 500 lost 177.72 points, or 4.32%, to 3,932.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 632.84 points, or 5.16%, to 11,633.57. All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the session deep in red territory.

The Basics of Inflation

The stock market’s dramatic reaction to the inflation report was both startling and revealing, in our view. We were surprised at the market’s intense reaction to the fact that neither headline nor core CPI declined on a month-over-month basis. It reveals that neither economists nor investors understand the underpinnings of inflation or the composition of the consumer price index. It also reveals that much of the recent advance was based upon the expectations that inflation was moderating simply because gasoline prices had declined. Again, these were naïve or premature presumptions.

As we have been writing for the last 18 months, the combination of historic monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2021 during an economic recovery, coupled the with signing of The Paris Climate Agreement and reducing carbon fuel supplies, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a volatile mix for the world for the following reasons: 1.) Stimulus, monetary or fiscal, during a recovery is inflationary. 2.) Reducing carbon fuels without an immediate plan to replace these energy supplies is foolish and will immediately increase fuel prices. 3.) Russia, a major source of fuel for Europe, has weaponized oil and restricted energy supplies to Europe which is increasing fuel prices. 4.) Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, has been demolished and this will result in critical food shortages in the world and raise food prices in coming months.

None of the above are temporary, and only monetary policy is controllable by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve is responsible for reducing inflation and it will continue to do so by reducing money supply and increasing interest rates. Both will slow the economy and the combination will increase the risk of recession. In our opinion, the Fed will raise rates 75 basis points later this month, with the hopes that inflation will begin to slow, and rates will continue to decrease economic activity.

However, the Fed has been late, and inflation has become systemic, in our view. As we show on page 3, prices are rising in all areas of the economy particularly in housing, food, and medical care. Owners’ equivalent rent has a hefty 23.65% weighting in the CPI, and it rose 6.3% YOY in August. This series tends to move in line with housing prices, but with a multi-month lag, which means rents are likely to continue to rise along with housing and add to inflation even as gasoline prices fall. Auto and lodging prices rose less dramatically in August, but medical prices are seasonal which means they will now switch from tempering inflation to adding to inflation. Note that medical insurance prices tend to rise annually in the fourth quarter when corporate and Medicare contracts are finalized. See page 4. A broadening of inflation can be seen by the fact that while headline inflation fell from July’s 8.5% YOY to August’s 8.3% YOY, core inflation rose from July’s 5.9% YOY to August’s 6.3% YOY.

All of this was predictable for anyone who understands the concept of supply and demand and the composition of CPI. Note that all but one component of CPI is currently growing at multiples of the Fed’s target rate of 2%. See page 5. This indicates the difficulty facing the FOMC in coming months. The US Treasury yield curve is not fully inverted, but it is inverted between the 1-year Treasury and the 10-year Treasury note. And even after a 75-basis point increase in the fed funds rate later this month, the effective fed funds rate would be 3.08% and would still be lower than the current 10-year Treasury yield of roughly 3.42%. Yet what concerns us is the historically large spread between the inflation rate and the 10-year Treasury yield. In the inflationary cycle of 1968 to 1982, inflation exceeded the Treasury yield, but was not broken until the Treasury yield matched the inflation rate – with a lag. Hopefully, it will be different this time and inflation will ease as interest rates rise. But the risk of recession remains high in most any scenario. See page 6.  

There was some good news in sentiment indicators this week. AAII readings showed a decrease of 3.8% in bulls to 18.1% and an increase of 2.9% in bears to 53.3%. These results are in line with the five weeks of less than 20% bulls and more than 50% bears between April 27, 2022 and July 7, 2022. Equity prices tend to be higher in the next six and/or twelve months following such a reading. See page 14. In sum, we remain cautious, particularly in September, and remain focused on sectors and stocks with recession resistant earnings such as energy, utilities, staples, and defense stocks.

Gail Dudack

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