The financial media is asking whether the stock market believes the Fed in terms of its future plans for monetary policy, and we feel the only answer to this question is yes. In fact, the answer is obvious since the indices would not have made all-time highs earlier this week if investors did not believe Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed. Based upon the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus promised by the federal government and the Federal Reserve, we believe investors should maintain a bullish bias. But at the same time, we remain very alert to anything that could jeopardize the consensus view that the economy will remain strong, interest rates will remain low, and earnings growth will continue to be solid in 2021 and 2022. In our opinion, there are risks to this view and they include the 9.5 million people unemployed, rising crude oil prices and margin pressure threats. So, the better question would be should the market believe the Fed?  

The Fed will be meeting this week and reporting on Wednesday when it will release both economic and interest rate forecasts as well as its statement. These will be closely analyzed by economists. Most expect the Fed’s statement will imply that interest rates are not likely to be raised until 2023. However, the consensus view regarding the end of quantitative easing has shifted to this November from November 2022. We do not expect the Fed will upset the consensus this week, particularly with a new administration in office for barely two months. But recent data shows there could be a growing inflation scare materializing in coming months. In sum, be bullish, but stay on high alert.

Inflation Can Bite

February’s inflation data was comfortably benign on the surface with headline CPI rising 1.7% YOY and core CPI rising a subdued 1.3% YOY. However, as seen in the table on page 3, February’s inflation was restrained by the 3.6% decline in apparel. Meanwhile most components of the CPI rose faster than the headline level. Fuel and utility prices rose 3.4% YOY while food and beverage prices rose 3.5% YOY. This means that prices of household necessities were increasing at a 3.5% YOY pace, well above the headline rate. In February, the PPI for finished goods rose 2.4% YOY and PPI for final demand rose 2.8% YOY. However, all inflation measures are impacted by the price of oil, which at the end of February was up 27% year-to-date and 37% YOY. In fact, at the current crude oil price of $64.97, oil prices are up 34% year-to-date and possibly up 220% YOY at the end of March. This will have a significant impact on March inflation data. In fact, even if the PPI for finished goods remains unchanged in March it will still be up 4.1% YOY. In our view, inflation comparisons will become very unfriendly as we approach the anniversary of the lows of March and April 2020.

Economists focus on core CPI due to the fact that food and energy prices can be erratic. Food prices are often impacted by droughts, storms, and other natural disasters but prices usually recover in a new planting season. Fuel prices can be influenced by politics and other temporary factors that change the short-term supply/demand balance. And as seen in the charts on page 4, energy prices have been extremely volatile since OPEC’s oil embargo of October 1973.

Energy prices dropped dramatically in response to the shutdown of the global economy last year, and this has kept Inflation subdued. However, that benefit is fading and could clearly reverse with vaccines becoming more plentiful and with an administration that is unfriendly to the energy sector. See page 5. Rising fuel costs will have many repercussions; and in 2021, the trend in crude oil may be a key driver of interest rates. We previously pointed out the strong connection oil and interest rates have had since 2015. At present both appear to be moving higher in tandem. See page 6. The consensus view is that a 10-year Treasury yield above 2.4% could negatively impact Fed policy and rates of 2.8% or more will hurt the economy. Rising inflation will also decrease the buying power of consumers and thereby lower corporate profits. Note that for most of the last eight years, average weekly earnings have grown well above the rate of inflation. But as inflation rises, this could shift and thereby restrain consumption. All in all, rising crude oil prices threaten monetary policy, interest rates, household consumption, the economy, and earnings. We see rising crude oil prices as the number one threat of the year.

The chart of the 10-year Treasury yield shows it has broken above resistance at 1.45% and technically this points to a new higher trend for interest rates. The first range of resistance is seen at the 1.75% to 1.85% level and secondarily at 2.1%. However, the more substantial resistance is noted at 2.4% which is the level that most economists believe would threaten the Fed’s current easy monetary policy. The chart suggests this is possible. See page 7.

Retail sales fell a disappointing 3.0% in February, but still rose 6.3% YOY. As seen on page 8, February’s 6.3% increase was down from a 9.5% gain in January. Declines were substantial and broadly based with only gas stations rising 3.6% and grocery store sales rising 0.1% for the month. Year-over-year changes were diverse, ranging from negative 17% at restaurants to positive 25.9% at nonstore retailers. These sales declines were the result of fading federal stimulus, but February should be a one-off statistic since another round of stimulus checks will begin to reach consumers in March.

The NFIB small business optimism index ticked up from 95.0 in January to 95.8 in February, but the report was fairly glum with sales expectations, the outlook for expansion, and inventory plans all falling two points apiece. Capital expenditure plans and hiring plans each rose one point. The outlook for business conditions rose from -23 to -19 and credit expectations fell from -3 to -6. In general, the NFIB survey report was uninspiring. See page 10.

New 2022 S&P Earnings Estimates

This week S&P Dow Jones initiated a 2022 S&P 500 earnings estimate of $199.50 which joins the Refinitiv IBES estimate of $201.64. We are also initiating a 2022 earnings estimate this week at of $200. This represents an 18.6% gain over our 2021 estimate of $168.60. Note that a 20 PE multiple to earnings of $200 equate to an SPX target of 4000. See page 12 and 19.

Technical Update

The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is currently 1.55 (preliminary) and neutral this week despite the March 15 highs in all the indices. However, if the indices continue to move into new high ground, we should see this indicator attain another overbought reading to demonstrate that volume is confirming price moves. This oscillator was last in overbought territory for five consecutive trading days between February 4 and February 10 when several momentum indicators peaked. Five days overbought is a minimum confirmation for any bull market advance. See page 14.

The 10-day average of daily new highs is 496, well above the bullish 100 which defines a bull market. The 10-day average of daily new lows (68) is below the 100 that defines a bear market, yet it is well above the 10 or less that signals an extreme in a bull market advance. The 10-day new high average reached 521 on February 17, exceeding the 489 recorded January 22, 2000. We view this as a potential yellow flag since the 2000 advance peaked in March. The A/D line made its last confirming record high on March 15, 2021, which is positive. AAII bullish sentiment for March 11 rose 9.1 points to 49.4%, a 16-week high, and has been above average for 15 of the last 17 weeks. Bearishness fell 1.8 points to 23.5% and is below its historical average of 30.5% for the fifth consecutive week. The 8-week spread remains neutral. In sum, the lack of extremes in all the technical indicators is positive for the bulls.

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There is no doubt that the current equity market is displaying significant positive momentum. This is made clear by the fact that the Russell 2000 index has been core to price leadership in 2021. In fact, the iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN – $152.31), the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM – $225.83) and the iShares Russell Growth ETF (IWO – $329.01) are all beating other indices with gains of 17.2%, 16.7%, and 16.5%, respectively. This compares to the 6.3% year-to-date gain in the SPY. See page 14.

Similar but Different from 2000

Several technical indicators are confirming the advance. The NYSE cumulative advance decline line is corroborating the advance with a record high as of February 12. Our favorite 25-day up/down volume oscillator is neutral this week but recorded five consecutive trading days in overbought territory last week. In this indicator, five to ten consecutive days in overbought territory is a sign that persistent buying pressure is supporting the move. See page 10. Even more impressive has been the 10-day average of daily NYSE new highs which hit 514 this week, exceeding both the 10-day average of 492 made on January 20, 2021, and the previous record of 489 made January 22, 2000. See page 11. This last point should also come as a warning flag to investors since the strong market breadth seen in January 2000 preceded the bull market peak made in March 2000 by less than two months. However, the 2000 market was driven by both momentum and more importantly a mania for stocks. Today’s market appears to be a bit different. First, the equity advance is much broader today than the narrow bull market of 2000. Second, valuations were far more stretched in March 2000 than they are at present. Third, the mania for stocks seen in 1999 and early 2000 is not apparent, at least not yet.

Too Dangerous to Short

Normal sentiment indicators are surprisingly benign. The ISE Call/Put Volume ratio remains neutral. AAII bullish sentiment for February 11 jumped 8.1 points to 45.5% and bearish sentiment declined 9.3 points to 26.3% which puts it below its historical average of 30.5% for the first time this year; nevertheless, the 8-week bull/bear spread remains solidly neutral. On the other hand, February’s Bank of America survey of 225 global institutional, mutual and hedge fund managers did reveal a surprising level of bullishness. Cash levels in these investment portfolios dropped to 3.8%, the lowest level since May 2013. (This 2013 benchmark is significant since it coordinates with a Treasury bond sell-off triggered by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when he indicated his intention to taper bond purchases.) A net 91% of money managers indicated that they expect a stronger economy. This is the highest percentage reading in the history of the survey. One concerning fact is that only 13% of participants indicated they were worried about an equity market bubble. About 53% of all managers felt equity markets were in a late-stage bull market while 27% believe the bull market is still in its early stages. Equally notable, a net 25% of the investors surveyed said they were taking “higher-than-normal” risks at the present time. This was the highest percentage ever recorded. The most crowded trades were long technology and bitcoin and short the US dollar. Although this survey gives us concern, we believe it would be extremely dangerous to short this market at this time.

Consensus 2022 Hits $200

One reason it could be unwise to short the current market is that consensus S&P earnings for 2020 and 2021 continue to move upward. For this year and next, S&P Dow Jones consensus earnings estimates rose $0.08 and $0.22, respectively, and Refinitiv IBES consensus estimates rose $0.61 and $0.66, respectively. Full year 2021 earnings forecasts for S&P Dow Jones and IBES are now $170.77 and $173.70, respectively. But it is most important to note that the IBES consensus estimate for 2022 has exceeded $200 for the first time and is currently estimated at $200.41. Applying a 20 PE multiple to this estimate equates to a target for the SPX of 4000. In short, one could argue that the market is not wildly overvalued – just discounting future earnings.

What Could Upset the Apple Cart?

However, this last statement – just discounting future earnings — is dangerous since no investor can actually predict the economy, stock market or earnings two years in advance. With this in mind, it is prudent to think about what could go wrong with the two factors that underpin the bullishness of professional investors today — strong fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy. In short, what could upset the apple cart?

The Democratic majority in Congress and the White House makes fiscal stimulus relatively predictable for 2021. But what about monetary policy? As we previously noted, low interest rates, high liquidity, and a benign Fed are the perfect recipe for speculators. Therefore, it is not surprising that a net 25% of the investors surveyed by Bank of America, the highest percentage ever recorded, said they were taking “higher-than-normal” risks today. However, keep in mind that as interest rates rise the risk/reward ratio for speculators will also change and at some point, potential risk will outweigh potential rewards. In a word, the risk for 2021 could be inflation.

The Biden administration has been quickly reversing the energy policies of the Trump administration and oil prices have been rising accordingly. This coupled with the freezing temperatures in Texas which are disrupting energy transportation while increasing demand for heating needs, have boosted the WTI future above $60 this week. This is a 35% YOY increase. It is likely to move higher and thereby be the driver of higher inflation in 2021. See page 3.

At the end of 2020, all inflation benchmarks were stable and hovering around 1.4%. This 1.4% level is good for both consumers and businesses as well as for Federal Reserve policy. However, history has shown that a sharp rise in crude oil pricing will not only negatively impact the CPI but will be the catalyst for higher long-term interest rates. This is already happening. The 10-year Treasury note yield is currently at 1.2% which is higher than any time since the pandemic struck in March 2020. See page 4.

On a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, January’s CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year. Yet, January’s benign 1.4% inflation rate was contained by a seasonal 2.5% YOY decline in apparel and a 1.3% decline in transportation. The decline in transportation inflation is expected to be a temporary phenomenon. Fuel prices peaked in December 2019 at $61.06 and fell to $18.84 at the end of April 2020. In short, the easy year-over-year comparisons for fuel prices are behind us. See page 5. Charts of the crude oil future and the 10-year Treasury note yield index show the correlation between the two, but more importantly, the 10-year yield chart shows that there is resistance at the 1.4% yield level. If 1.4% is exceeded, it could indicate much higher levels for interest rates. Not only would inflation put pressure on interest rates and the Fed in terms of its easy monetary policy, but it could also force the FOMC to adjust its long-term outlook. A change in monetary policy is the opposite of what the consensus is expecting in 2021 and it could shock the equity market. In sum, do not fight the Fed, but beware of what could change the Fed’s outlook.

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Last week we outlined eight factors that typically identify a stock market bubble and discussed where we believe the current market stands in regard to each. One important and obvious characteristic of an equity bubble is that prices disconnect from valuation. Yet as we noted last week, while current valuation levels are rich, they are not at the inane levels often recorded at a bubble peak. We quote: “In short, fundamentals may be stretched today, but interest rates are low which means a 20 PE for 2021 is within our model’s fair value range. It will not be a surprise if valuations get even more stretched in coming months. All in all, equities are disconnecting from fundamentals, but this may continue for a time.” (US Strategy Weekly “And if it is a Bubble” January 27, 2021)

What is currently in the market’s favor is that this year’s consensus earnings estimate for the S&P 500 Composite is on the rise. According to Refinitiv IBES, to date, of the 203 companies in the S&P that reported fourth quarter earnings, 84% have beaten expectations. This is well above the long-term average of 60.5%. The blended earnings estimate for the fourth quarter now shows a decline of 1.2% YOY versus the decline of 10.3% YOY expected on January 1. Excluding the energy sector, IBES estimates fourth quarter earnings should actually rise 2.4% YOY, which would end three consecutive quarters of negative earnings comparisons for the S&P. In addition, energy sector earnings are expected to rebound sharply in 2021 and this should give an added boost to 2021 results.

At the end of last week IBES estimated 2020 consensus earnings were $138.71 and due to differences in accounting standards, S&P Dow Jones estimated earnings of $121.37. With only two more days of fourth quarter earnings results, IBES raised its 2020 estimate to $139.21. All told, fourth quarter earnings have been a pleasant surprise for investors.

Fourth quarter results are also a positive catalyst for 2021 earnings forecasts. At the end of last week, IBES estimated 2021 S&P earnings to be $171.55, but after two more days of earnings results, their estimate increased to $172.05 this week. S&P Dow Jones forecasted $169.39 for S&P 500 2021 earnings in their regular report at the end of last week. What is important about these various increases in earnings is that if one applies a 20 PE multiple to the current IBES estimate of $172.05 it equates to a price target of SPX 3441. Although this is 10% below current prices, the good news is that this does not represent an extreme overvaluation given the current low level of inflation and interest rates. Thus, any correction should find support around the SPX 3400 level. Conversely, stock market bubbles tend to end with ridiculously high PE multiples. In sum, if equities are forming a bubble market, it may continue for a time.

Adjusting our Earnings Estimates for 2020 and 2021

The S&P earnings results for the fourth quarter, and for 2020 generally, are much as we expected. So, with the annual earnings season nearly complete, we are adjusting our 2020 earnings estimate to match the S&P Dow Jones estimate of $121.87. This reflects a decline of 22.8% year-over-year versus our expectation of a decline of 20% to 25% in 2020. We are also raising our 2021 estimate from $166.60 to $168.60, representing a 39% increase this year. See page 19. But more importantly, we would not be surprised if this earnings estimate proves to be too conservative over time, particularly as the drag from the energy sector abates and the productivity improvements seen in 2020 help to drive the bottom lines for many companies in 2021.

Economic Reports

Real GDP grew in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4%, which means that economic activity in the full year of 2020, contracted 3.5%. This 2020 contraction followed gains of 2.3% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019. To our surprise, despite the 2020 recession, GDP grew at an average pace of 1.94% during Trump’s four years in office which was precisely the midpoint between the 1.89% rate for Obama’s eight years and 1.99% for GW Bush’s eight years. See page 3.

Economic growth in the fourth quarter was driven primarily by personal consumption of services and gross private investment. This shift in economic activity toward the service sector was a welcomed change since most of 2020’s economic activity was supported by personal consumption of durable goods, particularly housing and autos. The gains in gross domestic investment in the fourth quarter were primarily in residential structures. In fact, residential fixed investment hit a record $983.5 billion in the quarter which was an 18.3% gain year-over-year. This represented the strongest year-over-year rise in residential investment since the third quarter of 2013. See page 4. And as a percentage of real GDP, residential activity rose to 4.58%, the highest since the third quarter of 2007. This is strong but just slightly below its long-term average of 4.6% of GDP. See page 5. In sum, housing continued to be a major driver of economic activity at the end of 2020. But this may not continue in 2021. Ironically, as residential investment rose in the fourth quarter, homeownership levels declined rather markedly. See page 6. Total homeownership in the US fell from 67.4% of all households to 65.8%. The greatest decline was seen in the South where the homeownership rate fell from 70.8% at the end of September to 67.7% at the end of December. The Northeast was the only region in the US to experience a gain and rose from 62.0% to 62.6% in the fourth quarter. In terms of age groups, the 35 to 44 years old segment underwent the biggest decline in homeownership from 63.9% to 61.0%. Given the anecdotal evidence of households fleeing the Northeast and California to Texas, Florida and the Carolinas, this data seems illogical. However, the fourth quarter could be a transition phase as households move from states where restrictions have closed most institutions and establishments to states where schools and businesses have been open. Or it could be more ominous. The contraction of jobs in 2020 may have forced households to sell homes and move to apartments. Time will tell. However, we do believe economic growth in 2021 could disappoint investors if the federal government does not focus on stimulating job growth.

In December, personal income grew 4.1% YOY and real disposable income rose 3.2% YOY. However, a more revealing statistic is real personal income, which excluding current transfer payments fell 0.5% YOY in December. It also declined 0.45% in November. In short, government assistance, not economic activity, is propping up incomes and the economy. See page 9. And while personal income rose 4.1% in December, personal consumption declined 2.1%. Moreover, consumption has been negative in every consecutive month since March. This reveals the weak underbelly of the US economy and it is unlikely to change until the job market improves. See page 10.

Technical Indicators Little has changed in the technical arena. Our volume oscillator remains in neutral territory, the 10-day new high list has dropped from the record 492 hit on January 20^th (breaking the previous record of 489 recorded in January 2000) to a more normal 259. Sentiment indicators are also surprisingly benign despite the headlines of individual traders driving volatile meme stocks. However, it is worth noting that at the end of the year stock market capitalization relative to nominal GDP was 2.1 and higher than the prior record of 1.82 set in March 2000. A similar Wilshire 5000 ratio was 1.83, exceeding its peak of 1.43 set in March 2000. These high ratios are signs that equity valuations may be outperforming the economy. See page 4. Expect 2021 to be a wild roller coaster ride and invest accordingly.   

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One of the first warnings signs of the year was the rise in bullish sentiment reported by the Association of American Individual Investors (AAII) in their weekly survey. In the first week of 2021, bullish sentiment rose from 46.1% to 54.0% which means bullish sentiment has remained above the historical average of 38% for nine consecutive weeks. Bullish sentiment is also at its highest level since the November 11, 2020 reading of 55.8% which was a 12-month high. An early preview to current data suggests bullish sentiment may increase again in the current week. Nevertheless, the 8-week Bull Bear spread is negative for the second week in a row which is similar to the warning seen in early 2018. See page 18. As a reminder, 2018 was a roller coaster year of big price swings that ended with a loss of 5.6% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 6.2% in the S&P Composite.

It is important to keep in mind that sentiment indicators are not useful for timing market peaks or troughs, however they do provide good discipline for investors who may become too optimistic or pessimistic about equities. With bullish sentiment above 50%, investors should remain alert to other signs of risk in the markets. Nevertheless, most technical indicators are confirming the indices’ recent highs. The NYSE cumulative advance decline line made an all-time high on January 12, the 10-day average of daily new highs is robust at 433 and the 10-day average of daily new lows is 28, and well above the 10 or less per day that can appear at the end of a major advance. The one ambivalent technical indicator is the 25-day up/down volume oscillator which is currently neutral at 1.52. This oscillator was in overbought territory for 16 of 19 consecutive trading days between November 23 and December 18 and reached an extreme overbought reading of 5.52 on December 4. This combination was a solid confirmation of the new highs seen at year end. But if we see further gains in stock prices in 2021, we would also like to see an overbought reading to show that price gains are supported by solid buying pressure. See page 11, 12 and 13.

Last week we noted the favorable signal emanating from the Santa Claus rally given the gain during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year. The January Barometer, devised by Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1972, is another Wall Street adage that states “as goes January so goes the year.” This parable makes sense to us since liquidity, or cash, tends to at its best early in the year as a result of year-end tax-loss selling, year-end bonuses and annual funding of pension funds and IRA’s. History also suggests that the first five trading days of January predicts the month of January. On page 7 we show the performance history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the first five days of January, the month of January and the full year beginning in 1950. It indicates that the first five trading days of January has predicted the year’s action 79% of the time. However, the January Barometer has an even more impressive 95% accuracy in predicting the full year’s action if, and only if, January has a positive performance. The Barometer is less accurate when January ends with a loss. As the table shows, there have been 24 instances of losses in early January, 14 years with losses in the full month of January, and eleven years of negative performances for the full year. In short, January losses are far less predictive. But to date, the 1.6% gain in the first five days of January 2021 bodes well for the month and for the overall year. See page 9.

Anyone Focusing on Jobs?

The ISM manufacturing index increased from 57.5 to 60.7 in December, with most components, except for trade, also rising. Prices paid soared from 65.4 to 77.6. We remain nervous that inflation could be a big risk for equities this year. The nonmanufacturing index rose from 55.9 to 57.2 in December, but the employment index fell from 51.5 to 48.2. With the employment index below the 50 breakeven point, it suggests job growth in the service sector may weaken in coming months. See page 3.

The loss of 140,000 jobs in December did not surprise us given the extended shutdowns of businesses in states like New York and California; so, we are encouraged that Governor Cuomo appears to be ready to ease some restrictions. Still the risk of lengthy shutdowns is that businesses and entrepreneurs have been and will continue to face bankruptcy, which weakens the economy, and foreshadows more jobs losses. In December, the number of people employed was down 6.2% from a year earlier. Typically, any negative growth rate in employment suggests the economy is in the midst of a recession. The US economy has been buoyed by extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus for much of 2020, but stimulus cannot solve all problems. The unemployment rate in December was unchanged at 6.7%, but this is still well above the 3.6% seen in December 2019. Plus, when we look at the breakdown of unemployment, we find it is not evenly distributed. Those hurt the most in 2020 were workers with less than a high school degree which means households in the lower end of the job market remain under the greatest pressure. This dilemma is linked to the closure of food and drink establishments, hotels, and all employees tied to business and leisure travel. In our opinion, a weak job market will be another risk factor for the economy, earnings, and investors in 2021. Strangely, politicians seem focused on other matters and are ignoring this fact. See pages 4 and 5.

Small Business Confidence is Crumbling

Entrepreneurs and small businesses were feeling the impact of the pandemic at the end of 2020. The NFIB small business optimism index fell 5.5 points in December to 95.9 and all components with the exception of inventory satisfaction were lower. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months plummeted 24 points to a net negative 16. Sales expectations for the next three months fell 14 points to a net negative 4. Hiring plans fell 4 to 17, which was down but only to the lower end of the range seen over the last three years. This survey makes it clear that small businesses are concerned about their future in 2021.

The two areas of strength in the 2020 rebound have been housing and auto. Existing home sales were fairly robust at 6.69 million (SAAR) units in November, down slightly from October, yet up nearly 16% YOY. New home sales were 841,000 in November which was down from 945,000 units in October, but still up 21% YOY. The one warning sign we see for homebuilders is the pending home sales index which fell for the third consecutive month in November to 125.7. See page 7.

Earnings Forecasts are Stabilizing Consensus earnings estimates were revised significantly lower at year end but edged up slightly last week. S&P Dow Jones estimates rose $0.20 for 2020 and $0.17 for 2021 while IBES estimates rose $0.13 for 2020, $0.36 for 2021 and $0.37 for 2022. The S&P Dow Jones and IBES estimates for 2020 are $120.54 and $135.79 and for 2021 they are $164.57 and $167.61, respectively. Keep in mind that PE multiples have expanded dramatically in the last twelve months due in large part to low interest rates and indications from the Federal Reserve that monetary policy will not change before 2023. However, our valuation model indicates that the current low inflation/low interest rate environment translates into a 20 PE multiple. If we apply a 20 PE to the IBES $167.61 estimate for this year it implies a target for the SPX of 3352. In other words, the SPX has a 12% downside risk should optimism regarding earnings, the economy, interest rates or inflation change in the near term.

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