The equity market is in the early innings of a stock market bubble, in our view. For bubbles to form there is normally a new generation of investors, excess liquidity, and an underlying development, discovery, or invention, which makes the economic backdrop “different this time.” The concept of being “different this time” is important since it is at the crux of how the equity market can disconnect from underlying fundamentals.

In the current environment the most obvious new “invention” is generative artificial intelligence, or AI. Today’s economic backdrop is seen as accommodative for equities based upon the consensus opinion that inflation is trending toward a benign 2% level, a pivot in monetary policy from tightening to easing is ahead, and there is no significant recession on the horizon. Any challenges in any of these areas could derail the bubble. However, of these three criteria Federal Reserve policy is the least important. It is likely that investors can, and will, adjust to the fact that a Fed rate cut may not materialize any time soon.

Eyes on Nvidia

What would be a shock to the market would be if generative AI does not become the earnings driver that analysts expect it to be. This helps to explain why earnings results for chipmaker Nvidia Corp. (NVDA – $694.52), which controls 80% of the high-end chip market, will be a critical barometer for the market and for the bubble. Nvidia earnings are released on Wednesday which makes this the most important day of the week. The 40% gain in Nvidia’s stock price this year has driven NVDA’s market capitalization past that of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN – $167.08) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG – $142.20), placing the stock in third place behind Microsoft Corp. (MSFT – $402.79) and Apple Inc. (AAPL – $181.56) in terms of size. The company has also replaced Tesla, Inc. (TSLA – $193.76) as Wall Street’s most traded stock by value after $30 billion worth of its shares changed hands, on average, over the last 30 sessions. This turnover was greater than Tesla’s average of $22 billion per day in the same period. With a forward PE ratio of 32 times, many analysts expect a blow-out earnings quarter for NVDA.

While in the World

The focus on Nvidia’s earnings release has overshadowed a number of other events this week including the $80 billion merger of Capital One Financial (COF – $137.39) and rival Discover Financial Services (DFS – $124.42), Walmart Inc. (WMT – $175.86) buying smart-TV maker Vizio Holding Corp. (VAIO – $11.08) for $2.3 billion, Russia taking over the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka in a chaotic bloody battle, the United States being the only veto to a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, and the US announcing a major package of sanctions against Russia in response to the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny while he was in prison.

Economic Results

The National Association of Home Builders confidence index rose 4 points in February to 48, driven entirely by expectations which rose 1.3 points to 78.4. These results are up nicely from recent lows but remain well below pre-Covid-19 levels. The Census Bureau released data showing total housing starts fell 14.8% YOY in January, while single-family starts rose 22% YOY. Similarly, new housing permits rose 8.6% YOY and single-family permits rose a much stronger 35.7% YOY. This data seems to suggest that the boom in multi-family construction may be slowing. See page 3.

In January and on a seasonally adjusted basis, total retail and food services sales increased a modest 0.6% YOY. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose a slightly better 1.2%, and excluding motor vehicles & parts and gas stations, sales rose 2.2% YOY. However, based on 1984-84 dollars, retail sales fell 2.4% YOY, making January the 11^th time in 15 months that real retail sales were negative on a year-over-year basis. This has been one of the longest stretches of negative real retail sales not accompanied by an economic recession. See page 4.

In the post-COVID-19 era there have been only two components of retail sales that consistently gained market share, and these are nonstore retailers and food services & drinking places. In other words, in a period of negative real retail sales coupled with gains in nonstore retailers and food services & drinking places, many other areas of the retail sector have been suffering greatly. Auto sales are a large component of total retail sales; and while autos had a healthy rebound from their COVID lows, it was not sustained, due in large part to increases in interest rates, gas prices, and auto insurance costs. See page 5.

The University of Michigan sentiment index for February was 79.6. This was little changed from January’s 79.0 reading, but it was up nicely from November’s 61.3 survey. Expectations led the gain, rising from 77.1 to 78.4. Current conditions fell from 81.9 to 81.5. The University of Michigan often includes political affiliation in its sentiment surveys, and this can be interesting to monitor. What is seen on page 6, is that one’s confidence tends to rise or fall depending upon which party you favor, and which party is in power. Democrats have displayed higher levels of consumer confidence during President Biden’s term in office, although even Democrats have shown less confidence in recent years than during President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, in February, sentiment improved substantially for Republicans and Independents, but fell for Democrats. See page 6. It will take time to see if this sentiment shift has any meaning for the November election.

Valuation

After slight declines in both the S&P 500 index and consensus earnings estimates, the trailing operating PE for the SPX is 23.3 X this week and remains above all short and long-term PE averages. The sum of the S&P’s 12-month forward PE of 21.2 and January’s CPI of 3.1% YOY equals 24.3, which is above the fair value range for equities, i.e., more than 23.8. In short, the market is richly valued. We are focused on this year’s earnings forecasts, but it is curious to note that the LSEG IBES consensus earnings estimate for last year was lowered by $2.71 to $221.84 this week. The S&P Dow Jones 2023 earnings estimate is unchanged at $211.10. See page 8.

Technicals

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continue to make new highs while the Nasdaq Composite index inches closer to its November 2021 high of 16,057.44. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 remains the most interesting index as it struggles to better, and stay above, the key 2000 resistance level and move out of the 1650 to 2000 range that has contained prices for two years. If the Russell can stay above this range successfully, it would be bullish for the overall equity market. Conversely, if the Russell fails to stay above the 2000 level and/or if the Nasdaq fails to move into new high ground, it could be a negative for the broader market. See page 9. The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at 0.43 this week and neutral. However, it is rising from the lower end of the neutral range. This indicator should reach and remain overbought for a minimum of five trading sessions to confirm new highs in the marketplace. The last string of overbought readings ended on January 5.

Gail Dudack

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Last week in our strategy weekly “A Bubble, or Not a Bubble” (February 7, 2024) we outlined the three possible strategies to employ during a stock market bubble. They are 1.) participate in the bubble and buy stocks displaying the best upside momentum, 2.) add ETFs to your portfolio that mirror the market leadership in order to boost short-term performance, or 3.) continue to invest in good value stocks and weather underperformance in the near term, understanding that value will outperform in the long run and in the event that the bubble bursts. All equity bubbles eventually burst. In line with these strategies, we shifted our sector weightings last week to favor the current momentum seen in communication services, technology, and healthcare.

This week, January’s CPI report is posing the first real threat to the Goldilocks/bubble scenario. January’s inflation data showed headline CPI rising 3.1% YOY, down from December’s 3.4%, but still above the June 2023 level of 3%. This small dip in headline inflation was particularly disappointing because energy costs fell 4.6% on a year-over-year basis. The report was not only a setback to the consensus, but it also challenged the concept that the Fed will make five or more rate cuts this year. Adding to the pain was the fact that the core CPI was unchanged from December’s 3.9% YOY pace. This was distressing for the consensus which was looking for lower CPI numbers to support the view that inflation would fall to, or close to, the 2% level later in the year.

Lower inflation is an important piece of the Goldilocks scenario for several reasons. Not only does it imply a Fed pivot by mid-year, but lower inflation is vital in terms of supporting the high PE multiples seen in the current market. Moreover, stock market rallies and stock market bubbles are driven by liquidity and liquidity does not increase in an environment of rising inflation and rising interest rates. In short, inflation is pivotal to the consensus view.

However, we strenuously disagree with those who believe that owners’ equivalent rent (OER) is the main reason inflation is so high and that without OER the CPI would be growing at a pace closer to 2% YOY. As seen on page 3, owners’ equivalent rent has a 26.8% weighting in the CPI, and it rose 6.2% YOY in January. On the surface, one might conclude that OER is the main reason headline CPI remains so high. But we disagree. The weighting of OER seems appropriate since rent is often 25% to 30% of a person’s monthly income. Moreover, while rents are coming down, so is the trend in OER which was rising 8.8% YOY in March 2023. The 6.2% YOY pace reported in January was substantially down from its peak.

In addition, the calculation for OER is based on a 12-month moving average of rents. This seems fitting since rental agreements are usually renewed on an annual basis and not everyone is getting the advantage of lower rents at present. As a result, the trend in rent expense will move slowly through the CPI and the economy on the way up and on the way down. It has always been this way and only now that inflation and the Fed are major economic issues has this become a major discussion point for the bulls.

And lastly, the OER is not the only issue driving headline inflation. January’s inflation report showed big price increases in tenants’ & household insurance, water & sewer & trash collection, motor vehicle insurance, personal care, and hospital & related services. See page 4. These categories of the CPI represent necessities for most households and the price rises in this list represent a burden on home finances. This explains why the average consumer is not feeling optimistic about the strength in recent GDP and employment data. For those who do not understand why average Americans are not happy with the current economy, we say, “just look at the data” and not just the headlines.

Entrepreneurs are also feeling the pressure. The small business optimism index dropped 2 points in January to 89.9. The significance of this is that it was the 25th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98, which is typically a sign of a recession. Six of the 10 components decreased in the month; the biggest decline was seen in sales expectations, which fell 12 points to negative 16. Actual earnings changes fell 5 points to negative 30 and hiring plans fell 2 points to 14. See page 5.

It has been an interesting week, and, in our readings, we found these interesting nuggets of information:

The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up over 32% of the index, the highest concentration seen in data going back to 1980. (https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1756721141547196867).

As of February 9^th, the S&P 500 rose for the 14th out of the last 15 consecutive weeks. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the last time this index recorded a comparable stretch of weekly gains was March 10, 1972 (a major market top). This 2024 stretch marked the 13th time it has happened since the index’s inception in 1957.

The current market capitalization of NVIDIA Corp. (NVDS – $721.28) of $1.78 trillion is greater than the GDP of South Korea ($1.71 Trillion – IMF 2023). South Korea is the 13^th largest economy in the world.

In an interview on CNBC earlier this week, Jason Trennert of Strategas, noted that the earnings for the Mag 7 stocks rose 59% YOY in the fourth quarter. The remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 had an earnings loss of 3%.

Since inflation is in the headlines this week, we would point out that the WTI future (CLC1 – $77.68) might be about to break out above a tight cluster of moving averages. The 50-day moving average is $73.42, the 100-day is at $77.97 and the 200-day moving average is at $77.41. A break above these three moving averages would be bullish and imply higher energy prices, which would not be good for future inflation reports. The next important inflation release will be the PCE deflator scheduled for February 29.

Prior to this week’s pullback, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a series of new record highs. The Nasdaq Composite came close to breaking its November 2021 high of 16,057.44. Still, the Russell 2000 remains the most interesting index as it struggles to better the key 2000 resistance and decisively move out of the 1650 to 2000 range that has contained prices for two years. If the Russell can break above this range successfully, it would be bullish for the overall equity market.  See page 8. The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at minus 1.14 and neutral this week after a 524.63-point decline in the DJIA on February 13. This indicator has not come close to recording an overbought reading despite the string of record highs in the two main indices in January and February. The last favorable overbought readings of 3.0 or higher took place during 22 of 25 consecutive trading days ending January 5. To confirm the recent string of new highs in the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average, this indicator needs to reach and remain in overbought territory for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions. This seems unlikely. In short, remain cautious.

Gail Dudack

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We recently wrote that we thought the equity market was richly valued and equities would either see a pullback to lower levels or the equity market could be on the verge of a bubble. Recent market activity leads us to believe that a bubble is indeed in the making. And the mania appears to be evolving and spreading.

This week, according to the Wall Street Journal, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY – $705.03) is a possible replacement for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA – $185.10) in the Magnificent Seven stocks. Some analysts believe there might be parallels between obesity drugs and the early days of electric vehicles and this made Lilly a beneficiary of the ‘mass-culture hype” that is dominating the equity environment. This hype has driven a few stocks to valuations that are well beyond that of their peers. For example, Tesla trades at 57 times forward earnings, according to FactSet, and Lilly trades at 55 times forward earnings. For comparison, in the auto industry Ford Motor Company (F – $12.07) trades at a 6.6 multiple and in the drug industry Johnson & Johnson (JNJ – $158.06) carries a PE multiple of 15 times. In an environment where earnings growth is slowing, investors seem to be flocking to a small group of companies believed to have little competition and massive growth potential. These stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, were huge outperformers for most of 2023, and it appears they may outperform again in 2024, but with some additions and deletions along the way.

Assuming this is true, we are making a number of sector weighting shifts this week.

Sector Shifts

If the stock market is in the midst of a bubble, the strategy for most portfolio managers will have to change. Unfortunately, to keep up with the popular indices money managers will be forced to shift their focus from value to momentum. This shift is risky and not permanent; however, it is necessary if one’s equity performance is measured against benchmarks like the S&P 500. The stocks that are likely to outperform in the months ahead will be those driven by the theme of the bubble, and in the current environment this would be artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence can take many forms in terms of companies providing AI, using AI, or being components of AI, but right now these stocks are concentrated in the technology and communication services sectors of the S&P indices. Since we believe the equity market is displaying signs of being in a bubble, we are changing sector weightings and shifting technology from neutral to overweight and communication services from underweight to overweight.

Healthcare has been performing better in recent weeks and also benefits from and uses many aspects of artificial intelligence. Moreover, the public appears to view the growth potential of obesity drugs as a significant earnings growth driver. In sum, we are upgrading the healthcare sector from neutral to overweight. The financial sector has already been among our overweight recommendations, and it currently remains there. However, within the financial sector we would focus on large money center banks and try to avoid growing problems seen in commercial real estate, credit card delinquencies, and auto loan delinquencies.

To balance out our sector recommendations we are downgrading industrials and consumer discretionary from overweight to neutral. Staples and energy are also rated neutral. Utilities, REITS, and materials are currently our recommended underweights. See page 14.

We are not comfortable being momentum followers, and would rather use fundamentals for our sector weightings, but history shows that at the core of a bubble is a disregard for fundamental value and a belief that a new era of growth is emerging. Keep in mind that in a bubble, only a small universe of stocks will take the averages higher, and a majority of stocks (in all industries) will underperform the S&P 500. More importantly, when a bubble bursts, the top-performing stocks that drove the market higher will also fall the hardest. Once a bubble bursts value stocks will also decline, but less than the overall market, and thereby outperform.

All in all, the decision to invest in and follow a bubble is an individual choice. One strategy in a bubble could be to own a collection of ETFs that mirror the indices rather than trying to outperform the portfolio benchmark. Or, for some investors, the wisest path could be to remember the story of the tortoise and the hare and stick to a slow and steady policy of value investing. This would mean weathering some subpar short-to-intermediate term performance and focusing on the longer term.

The history of bubble markets like those seen before the 1972 and 2000 peaks indicates that such markets can persist far longer than most people expect. Equities became overvalued in 1997 and did not peak until early 2000. Notice that there were 28 years between those two peaks, and we are 24 years past the last peak. In short, this is a new generation of investors. American humorist and writer Mark Twain is credited with the aphorism: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This seems to be an appropriate warning in the current environment.

If valuation does not apply in a bubble, there are only a few tools one can use to gauge when a bubble may be about to come to its end. Bubbles are fueled by both liquidity and leverage and monitoring these can help define the age of a bubble. In terms of liquidity, there is $6 trillion in money market funds ($2.35 trillion in retail money market funds and $3.65 trillion in institutional) suggesting there is plenty of fuel to keep prices moving higher. Leverage changes in every cycle and the current cycle may be fueled more by investors leveraging equity ownership through ETFs than by using margin debt. But only time will tell.

Technicals Look Bubbly Too

The charts of the popular indices have not changed much in the past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 recorded new all-time highs and the Nasdaq Composite is less than 3% from its record high. The Russell 2000 index, however, is more than 20% below its record peak. Moreover, after breaking out of the 1650 to 2000 range that contained price action in this index for two years, the Russell 2000 dropped back below the 2000 resistance level. See page 10. This underperformance is in line with the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line and reflects a two-tiered market.

The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at negative 1.15 this week and is closer to an oversold reading than an overbought reading. To confirm the recent highs in the SPX and DJIA, this indicator should reach and stay overbought for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions. If not, it suggests that investors are selling into the recent highs. This week we also have comments on economic releases including January’s employment report, weekly and hourly earnings, the ISM indices, and consumer confidence surveys. See pages 3 through 7.

Gail Dudack

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The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a series of new highs in recent sessions, triggered by the US Treasury’s announcement that funding in the first quarter would be less than previously expected and the International Monetary Fund releasing its global forecasts and announcing that a “soft landing” is in sight. (Should we worry?) But the week is far from over since on the horizon are results from many of the Mag 7 stocks, an important FOMC meeting, and January’s job report.

The Importance of AI Earnings

This is also a peak week for earnings announcements with 86 of the S&P 500 companies expected to report. To date, fourth-quarter earnings results have been mixed. And as we go to press, the stock market is trying to digest results from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT – $408.59), Alphabet Inc. A (GOOGL – $151.46), and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD – $172.06) which failed to impress investors.

Earnings results will be important for the equity market, particularly for companies in the technology and communication services sectors, which have been leading the advance. Note that the S&P communications services sector includes highflyers like Alphabet Inc. C (GOOG – $153.05), Alphabet Inc. A (GOOGL – $151.46), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META – $400.05), and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX – $562.85), which dominate the market capitalization of the group. It also includes AT&T Inc. (T -$17.53), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ – $42.47), Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS – $96.94), and Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC – $91.83). Given the lofty PE multiples in the Mag 7 companies, earnings results will be more important than ever. Moreover, any disappointment in the growth prospects for AI-related stocks would be a big negative for the overall marketplace.  

The S&P Dow Jones consensus estimate for 2024 of $240.08, was lowered by $0.61 last week. The LSEG IBES estimate for 2024 was $242.61 down $0.56. Keep in mind that based upon the IBES earnings estimate for this year, equities are very richly valued with a PE of 20.3 times. This is particularly high with inflation currently at 3.3%. The sum of this PE and inflation equals 23.6 and is just below the 23.8 level that defines an extremely overvalued equity market. If one uses the S&P Dow Jones consensus estimate, the current 2024 PE is even higher at 20.5 times. See page 9.

It has been our view that the equity market is at an important junction in 2024. Either earnings surge and justify current multiples, or equity prices will stall or decline until earnings improve. Another option is for equity prices to continue to rise, particularly in AI-related stocks, and to simply disconnect from fundamentals. This would be the start of a bubble market similar to those seen prior to the 1972 and 2000 peaks. This helps to explain why potential in AI-related growth is a key element to stock performance this year.

FOMC on Hold

Meanwhile, the economy appears to be stronger than many expected, and this could keep the Fed on hold for at least the next few months. We do not anticipate any significant change in policy this week, but it will be interesting to see how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell handles the press conference which could be lively. It would be unwise for the Fed to lower interest rates in view of recent economic reports. Real GDP grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter, down from the unsustainable rate of 4.9% seen in the third quarter, but strong, nevertheless. The most impressive feature of this fourth quarter growth was that all components were additive, including trade which is typically a drag on GDP. The main strength was the consumer, which was 1.9% of the quarter’s 3.3% increase. It is important to note that the 3.3% rate seen in the fourth quarter, although down on a quarter-over-quarter basis, remained solidly above the long-term average GDP growth rate of 3.2%. See page 3.

In December, personal income grew 4.7% YOY, disposable income grew 6.9% YOY and real disposable income grew 4.2% YOY. This last number is down from 4.4% in November; nonetheless, it is the 12^th consecutive month of positive real income growth. This string of positive real income follows 21 consecutive months of weak or negative real income growth seen from April 2021 to December 2022. This 21-month stretch of negative real income growth was the first time negative real income did not translate into an economic recession. See page 4.

The personal savings rate fell from 4.1% to 3.7% in December. Both savings rates were well below the 22-year average of 5.8% or the long-term average of 8.5% and this could mean that many households dipped into their savings for the holidays. Recent data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve helps to explain why good economic data has not had a substantial impact on consumer sentiment. Real personal median income peaked in 2019 at $40,980, fell in 2020 and has been flat ever since. In short, despite a surprisingly strong job market, and a rise in wages, inflation has taken a toll on many households and real median income has not increased. And it helps to explain why some consumers are still struggling despite a recent deceleration in inflation. See page 5.

To understand why consumer sentiment has hovered near recessionary levels, one needs to dig deeper than just the headlines. Household spending has been concentrated on necessities. For example, in the last 3 years spending on gasoline has increased nearly 90%, transportation services spending has increased 77%, and food services and accommodation spending has increased 71%. After being confined to their homes due to COVID mandates, consumers increased spending on recreational services by 78% in the last three years. Plus, we were quite surprised to find that wages in the government sector rose over 8% in 2023, which was far more than the 5% seen in most other industries. See page 6.

Interest payments are another area that has pressured many households. Personal interest payments, increased as much as 66.5% YOY in June 2023, and were still high at 37% YOY in December. Personal taxes were down in 2023 after substantial increases in 2021 and 2022. And what may prove to be the most significant data point in 2024 is the decline in government stimulus. The chart on page 7 shows that while “other” government stimulus is steadily trending lower, it is still well above normal. The surge in fiscal stimulus in 2021 helped boost consumption and the economy and may be the single reason many recessionary signals proved to be either wrong or too early.

Technical Update

A new set of breakouts materialized in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials this week generating a series of new all-time highs. The Nasdaq Composite is running to catch up. However, the Russell 2000 remains the most interesting index. After beating key resistance at 2000, it retreated below this level early in the year, and failed at another breakout attempt this week. There is still time for a breakout, and if the Russell succeeds, it would be bullish for the overall equity market. See page 10. The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at 0.13 and neutral this week after being in overbought territory of 3.0 or higher for 22 of the 25 consecutive trading days ending January 5. To confirm this week’s advance the indicator should reach and remain in overbought territory for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions in coming weeks.

Gail Dudack

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A Primary Thought

As we go to print, the New Hampshire primary is in progress, and it is getting an amazing amount of news coverage both domestically and globally. Perhaps this is because the New Hampshire primary is shaping up to be “the real beginning” or the actual end of former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s race for the Oval Office. Haley spent more money in New Hampshire than any other candidate and has the governor of the state supporting her. She has an impressive resume and did well as the US Ambassador to the United Nations. However, her campaign has received huge donations from multiple Democratic supporters which complicates her Republican standing. Either way, it feels like this primary is the real start of the 2024 presidential election campaign.

New Hampshire is a small state, but an interesting one. Forty percent of voters are registered as independent, and as such, can choose which party primary they want to participate in. On the Republican side, 22 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be awarded on a proportional basis. And though this is a small portion of the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, New Hampshire’s early spot on the calendar has given the state an outsized role in the nominating process.

On the Democratic side, 33 delegates will be sent to the Democratic National Convention from New Hampshire, but their vote will not be bound by the primary results due to a dispute within the party. President Joe Biden is not on the ballot because the Democratic National Committee decided to make South Carolina its first voting state. Meanwhile, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson have been actively campaigning for Democratic votes in the state. As a result, the Biden campaign began only recently, an active movement to get voters out to vote and to write-in Biden’s name. This could make the Democratic primary, which was expected to be a nonevent, also interesting. Interviews with early voters suggest that the border and immigration is a major focus for voters in the state, which could also make the New Hampshire results more important than the actual number of delegates it sends to the respective conventions.

Newscasters are indicating that if former President Donald Trump wins the New Hampshire primary he will be the first Republican candidate to win the first two primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire since Gerald Ford in 1976.

Stocks and Bonds

The stock market has shrugged off several hurdles this week, including Monday’s 6% decline in the Chinese stock market and mixed fourth quarter earnings results. Interest rates are inching higher due to a week of heavy debt issuance. This will be the first of many debt auctions this year since the Treasury is expected to issue nearly $2 trillion of debt in 2024. Nonetheless, in recent sessions the S&P 500 index joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average by recording an all-time high.

Although the S&P 500 has now recorded a new high, our technical indicators are yet to confirm the move. The Russell 2000, after beating the key 2000 resistance, has now dropped below this level, which neutralizes the December breakout. See page 7. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line is performing better than the Russell 2000 index, but it too, is not confirming the S&P 500, and remains 11,643 net advancing issues below its all-time high. See page 9.

The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at minus 0.53 and neutral this week after being in overbought territory of 3.0 or higher for 22 of the 25 consecutive trading days ending January 5. The oscillator did confirm the December uptrend as “significant,” however, it has not yet confirmed this week’s advance. To confirm this week’s move in the S&P 500 to record highs, this oscillator should move into overbought territory for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions. The current neutral reading is not surprising, but the oscillator needs to reach overbought territory in the next 5 to 10 days to confirm the January 19 and January 23 closes. See page 8. We remain cautious on equities until we get this confirmation.

Improving Economic News

Sentiment indicators improved at year end with the NFIB small business optimism index rising from 90.6 to 91.9 in December, its highest reading since July. The gains came from economic expectations and earnings trends which were less negative than a month earlier. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped 9.1 points to 78.8 in January, due to a 10-point gain in present conditions and an 8.5-point gain in expectations. However, note that both surveys remain well below long-term average levels. See page 3.

Retail sales rose 0.6% in the month of December and were up 5.6% YOY. Excluding auto & gas sales, core retail sales increased 5.8% YOY, which indicates that holiday shopping ended on an upbeat note, with growth led by department stores, apparel stores, and nonstore retailers. The 2.2% YOY gain in real retail sales was the best seen since February 2022 and it follows, and possibly reverses, a long period of negative real retail sales in 10 of the 12 months ending November 2023. A long stretch of negative real retail sales is characteristic of a recession. See page 4.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) home builder survey increased 7 points to 44 in January, showing gains in all components including current single-family sales, sales expectations over the next 6 months, and traffic of new potential buyers. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Affordability index rose in November to 94.2 from 91.4, due to a decline in mortgage rates from 7.7% to 7.5%, a modest rise in median family income to $99,432 and a slight decline in the price of a median single-family home to $392,100. Nonetheless, affordability remains near its lowest level since data began in 2007. See page 5.

Valuation

It has been our view that the market is currently richly valued. This means that the December rally could be the beginning of a liquidity-driven advance similar to those seen at the peaks made in 1973 or 2000. In both of these cases, the stock market disconnected from fundamentals due to the expectation of a new era of growth. Investors became enthralled by the Nifty Fifty stocks in 1972-1973 and by the dotcom craze of 1997-2000. Clearly, the buzz around artificial intelligence has a similar potential. Time will tell. Meanwhile, the S&P Dow Jones consensus estimate for 2024 is $240.68, down $0.56 this week. The LSEG IBES estimate for 2024 is $243.17 down $0.34. Based upon this IBES EPS estimate of $243.17 for this year, equities remain overvalued with a PE of 20.0 times. This multiple coupled with inflation of 3.3% sums to 23.3 and is just below the 23.8 level that defines an overvalued equity market. See page 6. If one uses the S&P estimate of $240.68, the 2024 PE is 20.2 times. In short, the stock market has already factored in a substantial decline in inflation and the next 12 months of earnings growth into current prices. As we noted last week, the bond market may be a better barometer of risk in 2024 than equities and rising interest rates are not factored into current equity prices.  

Gail Dudack

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The December rally seems to have run out of momentum early in 2024, and despite three attempts by the S&P 500 index to better its all-time record, it is yet to do so. And while the financial media talks about the market being in record territory, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eke out a new high recently. Our favorite barometer, the Russell 2000 index, dropped back below the critical 2000 resistance/support level making the bullish December breakout questionable.

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

There have not been any new developments to stop the advance. However, the December rally was driven by the consensus view that multiple Fed rate cuts were on the horizon and interest rates would begin to fall in March. The new year has tempered these expectations a bit, but we are concerned that those expecting rates to fall at the long end of the curve may also be disappointed. It is not new news that Treasury issuance is expected to nearly double to $2 trillion in 2024. Given this huge increase in supply, prices may have to fall and yields rise to entice demand for this flood of new debt.

It was not long ago that a credit rating downgrade by Fitch fueled a bond selloff that saw the 10-year yield reach 5%, its highest level since 2007. Signs that inflation is stickier than expected could also complicate the supply/demand picture for Treasury issuance. To offset these fears, some economists are theorizing that the central bank may end its quantitative tightening policy earlier than expected in order to improve the supply/demand balance in the marketplace. In the last 18 months, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by over $1 trillion through quantitative tightening. But some Fed officials, perhaps in response to these fears, recently said the central bank should start considering slowing down and ending the shrinkage of its bond holdings.

Also working against the bond market is the fact that fiscal deficits remain historically high, and the 12-month total deficit was 8% of GDP in December. See page 3. At the end of 2023, the deficit was due in large part to a 7.2% YOY decline in receipts, or government revenues. Revenue declines of this size are worrisome since they represent a decline in income or corporate profits and are usually associated with a recession. In short, this could be a warning for the economy as well as the bond market. It is also worth noting that the current deficit at 8% of GDP is greater than the average 12-month deficit seen prior to the COVID-19 shutdown. Deficits normally run high during recessions but decrease during economic expansions. The fiscal stimulus policies maintained throughout 2023 did boost the economy, as seen in third quarter GDP, but it came at the cost of increasing federal debt to high levels.

The composition of federal debt issuance is directed by the Treasury Secretary, and some have noticed that an increasing portion of debt has been issued at the shorter end of the yield curve, in Treasury bills. This makes sense if interest rates are close to zero, but after Fed tightening lifted short-term interest rates over 5%, this shift has contributed to the problem of rapidly rising interest payments on the debt. Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve showed that at the end of 2023, government payments on the debt reached 11% of total government outlays. See page 4.

We think some economists believe this rise in government interest outlays may force the Federal Reserve to lower rates earlier than they may want to do so. This may be true, but for that to happen inflation must also fall.  

Economists will be watching every Treasury quarterly refunding announcement in 2024, not only to analyze the supply of debt coming to market but also its composition. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee recommends that short-term financing not be more than 20% of federal debt in order to keep financing manageable. But the 20% level was exceeded in 2020, and at the end of 2023 Treasury bills represented 17% of federal debt and the trend was rising. See page 5. In sum, Treasuries could exceed 20% in coming quarters, and this would increase government interest payments even more. All in all, the bond markets need to be monitored closely this year, since the equity market has already discounted lower interest rates in 2024 not higher interest rates.

Inflation Expectations

The December CPI report showed headline inflation rising from 3.1% to 3.3% in December, with core CPI falling a bit from 4.0% to 3.9%. Our work uses non-seasonally adjusted data, and it shows a slightly different scenario of headline inflation falling 0.1 in December to 3.4% and core CPI increasing 0.1 to 3.9%. But more importantly, most underlying components of the CPI were rising faster than the headline index on a month-to-month basis. See page 6. Overall, most inflation measures show prices decelerating from their 2022 peaks and we think this should continue if energy prices remain stable.

What is a concern is that while headline and core inflation seem to be decelerating, several components of the CPI appear to be rebounding. See page 7. Transportation is the greatest concern for us, but in the service arena, components like motor vehicle insurance are rising 20% YOY. Note, while motor vehicle insurance only has a 2.9% weighting in the index, it is a service that impacts a majority of US households. We think it is items like this, the 5.0% YOY increase in personal care products, or the 5.1% YOY increase in pets, pet products and services, which keep many households concerned about inflation. See page 7.

Technical Update

December’s bullish breakouts in all four of the popular indices were perpendicular and dramatic, but weeks later only the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded an all-time high. The S&P 500 remains interesting at this juncture since it has been fractionally away from a new record three times in the last month but is yet to better its January 3, 2022 high of 4796.56. The Russell 2000, after beating the key 2000 resistance, has now dropped below this resistance/support level, and this neutralizes the December breakout. See page 9.

The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at 1.02 and neutral this week after being in overbought territory of 3.0 or higher for 22 of the 25 consecutive trading days ending January 5. This indicator needed to remain in overbought territory for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions to sanction the advance, which means that the oscillator has confirmed the December uptrend as “significant.” January’s pullback in prices may simply be a short consolidation phase, but it may last longer than some think, since we believe the equity market needs a new catalyst to propel stock prices higher. The obvious catalyst would be better-than-expected earnings, but to date, that has not materialized. As we wrote last week, December’s rally was driven by liquidity, not by valuation. At present, based on the LSEG IBES earnings estimate of $243.51 for this year, equities remain overvalued with a PE of 19.6 times. Adding 19.6 and the inflation rate of 3.4%, sums to 23.0, or just below the 23.8 level that defines an overvalued equity market. Based on the S&P estimate of $241.25; the 2024 PE is 19.8 times and even higher. We remain cautious.

Gail Dudack

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