DJIA:  33003

One thing leads to another… or does it?  Inflation leads to Fed tightening, Fed tightening leads to an economic slowdown, and slowdowns lead to declining earnings – or do they?  Our take is that when it comes to the stock market, what we all know isn’t worth knowing – it’s already discounted.  Tom Lee of Fundstrat has done some work here and what he found is interesting.  The key is what the market did in the previous year, down in the case of 2022.  When earnings were up the following year, the market’s median gain was some 18%.  When earnings were down in the following year, the market’s median gain was 15%.  So earnings didn’t prove an issue even when poor – seems they were discounted by the previous year’s weakness.

We can make the case for a new bull market, though not exactly your father’s bull market.  To buy into this case you have to realize the bear market ended last June, not last October.  Sure the low in the averages was last October, but most stocks made their lows in May-June.  So the October low is what technical analysts call a secondary low, a lower low in the averages but one with less selling pressure – clearly the case when looking at 12-month new lows.  Since then we’ve been in some form of base building, punctuated by the selloff in October and the buying spurt in January.  While we can’t always remember what we had for lunch, we recall pretty well the pattern of most bear markets.  Last year pretty much duplicated 1962, while this year is off to a good start, much like 1963.

January‘s momentum surge was impressive, with a variety of positive implications for future returns.  It did, however, serve to get things a bit overcooked – the near 50% surge in Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK-39) being a prime example of speculative fervor.  After all, the fundamentals of these stocks didn’t change that much in a month. Rather, after a bad year short covering and the end of tax loss selling seen the likely impetus, as well as down the most turning to up the most in rallies.  Most of those names, whatever their financial credentials might be, are tied to their stay-at-home world.  You may want to write this down – things change.  Meanwhile, most of Oil was up big last year, in large part because it was under-owned.  To that point, how much Parker Hannifin (355) or Grainger (684) do you own?

Grainger is a chart we particularly like, and that for two reasons.  Back on February 2 the stock had a price gap – a low that was higher than the previous day’s high.  It takes a lot of buying to cause a price gap, making it our favorite chart pattern.  Gaps of course usually leave patterns somewhat extended, so some consolidation was to be expected.  In Grainger‘s case it has been a very high-level consolidation, with the stock giving up very little.  Yet to happen is the breakout from this pattern.  And that would take place with a move above roughly 680, preferably with a pickup in volume.  Another gap just a few days ago was in Nvidia (233). While a strong pattern, keep in mind a sideways consolidation is preferable to any real pullback, awaiting the eventual follow-through.

The idea of a trading range it’s not so much of a prediction as it is an observation.  The S&P is around 4000, a level where it traded in May, September, and December.  A difference now is the S&P has traded in an uptrend since October, and broke its overall downtrend in December.  The pattern in 1963 was similar, a trading range but with enough of an upper bias to end the year 18 percent higher.  While just about everything is stalled for now, the question as always is what comes out of this as leadership.  We still like the economically sensitive names we’ve mentioned recently, Aerospace and Defense ETFs, XAR (120) and ITA (171), and the Global Infrastructure ETF (PAVE-30) – though components like United Rentals (471) and H&E Equipment Services (55) actually look a bit better.  We would still avoid most of FANG, though META (175) looks betta.

Frank D. Gretz

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                                                                                                                                    DJIA:  33,697

Value… it’s in the eye of the beholder.  And the eye of the beholder, that’s likely a function of the market’s trend.  What they call fair value is a function of many things, but in the end does it really matter?  Stocks sell at fair value twice – once on their way up and once on their way down.  The rest of the time they are overvalued or undervalued, and the trick is to figure out whether they’re on their way to becoming more overvalued or more undervalued.  In other words, figure out the trend which determines as much as three quarters of the movement in individual stocks.  Then there’s group or style rotation.  Most of Energy was up 50% last year, with virtually nothing to do with the market’s multiple.    The best performing individual names indeed are about earnings, but earnings which surprise.  What multiple do you put on earnings that you’re not expecting?  Seems easier to go with trend versus valuations.  Money is made in the stock market when for the S&P the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average.

If you believe history of sorts repeats, there’s plenty of reason for optimism.  As we pointed out last time, there’s a pre-election seasonal pattern that’s quite positive, even for the usually not so wonderful month of February.  And from February through July it’s quite positive.  Tom Lee of FundStrat published a note regarding the first 25 days of the year.  When up 5% or more the market was higher at year-end 16 of 17 times.  And finally, the Nasdaq Composite has outperformed the Dow Jones Average to an unusually large degree, the greatest since 2000.  Over the next six months there was never a negative return for the S&P, according to SentimenTrader.com.  Obviously this time could be different, though we cringe to say that.  Those words have cost many of us more money than we’d like to remember.

If it’s true this time is not different, the numbers seem to back that up.  Stocks above their 200-day moved above 70%, historically indicative of bull markets.  The level of 12-month New Highs seem to say the same.  That said, this is unlikely your 2009 bull market, or others of that ilk.  The washout this time was last June, so while the numbers so far have been good, they lack some of the drama of past bull markets.  Even last week saw a little glitch in the rosy scenario, as some reversals took NYSE stocks above their 200-day from 74% to 64%, a not so insignificant drop in just one week.  In turn, this made Monday’s rally all the more important, not for its 300+ Dow points but for its 3-to-1 A/D numbers.  Following what you might call a sloppy week, it’s important not to rebound with what we call a weak rally – up in the averages with poor A/Ds.

Recent data seems to confirm getting inflation under control will be, as the Beatles once suggested, a long and winding road.  Recent data also seems to confirm the economy is in his own world, one which seems more than fine with things.  Bull markets come around when stocks become sold out.  And as has been the case recently, new uptrends see stocks down the most turn to up the most.  That said, there also seems a new leadership has evolved in old industrial names like Parker Hannifin (355), Eaton (174), Dover (155), and names sensitive to economic growth like Cintas (441) and Grainger (670).  Obviously, there’s some contradiction here, as continued Fed tightening does not bode well for the growth story.  So what is the market missing, or is it what are we missing?  Rather than overthink it, for now, we will just go with the charts.

Our comments above notwithstanding, a common complaint is about leadership.  This can be pretty much summed up in saying Cathie Wood is having a good year finally, or at least so far.  While short covering seems a part of this rally, what bull market ever started without short covering?  We find it a bit upsetting that stocks like Deere (403) and Caterpillar (247) have not done better, but Boeing (212) and GE (84) at least have held their own.  Commodity-related stocks also have been disappointing, though oil equipment/drilling stocks look poised, so to speak, more than the exploration names. Cyber and defense stocks, to look at their respective ETFs, CIBR (42) and ITA (116), are much improved — wonder what that’s about?  Last year’s winners like Staples and Pharma are going through and out of favor phase, but this too should pass.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  33,699

Stock charts tell a story… and for now that story is a good one.  Clearly not all charts tell a story, and when they do it’s not always a good one.  We’ve come across a couple where the story not only seems a good one, it also seems an important one – with important implications for the economy and by extension the stock market.  Take for example WW Grainger (661), where one of their segments is called “endless assortment.”  In other words, they sell “stuff,” and they sell it to everyone.  Then there’s Parker Hannifin (352), whose engineered solutions go to a range of businesses.  The company was used by Alan Greenspan as an economic indicator.  Both of these stocks are in long-term uptrends, and came through the bear market reasonably well.  The real point is their recent significant breakouts.  The stocks of these companies, who seem to have their finger on the pulse of the economy, are telling a very positive story.

Investor psychology has shifted from pessimism to skepticism.  It’s apparent the market is acting better, but this better action isn’t really trusted.  The distrust, of course, relates to earnings which seem likely to disappoint.  And therein lies the point of the matter.  How disappointing can earnings be when even we technical analysts know earnings will be disappointing?  One of our long held tenets is that when it comes to the stock market, what we all know isn’t worth knowing.  What we all know already is priced in.  And if you insist earnings are your big worry, how is it last year‘s earnings were good and the market went down?  Why can’t earnings this year be bad and the market go up?  Amidst the media’s onslaught of warnings, it’s easy to forget that these forecasts likely will prove old news.  Market averages make their lows some eight months ahead of the news.

The anecdotal positives aside, the numbers also have turned positive.  The percent of NYSE stocks above their 200- day reached 74% last week.  Historically readings above 60% have been followed by above-average forward returns in the S&P, and spikes toward 70% marked new bull markets in 1995, 2003, 2009, 2013 and so on.  Last week also saw more than 10% of NYSE issues traded reach a 12-month New High.  And more than 8% did so on the NASDAQ.  It’s difficult to argue numbers like this fit with an ongoing bear market.  Because this was in its way a different kind of bear market, with a washout in the middle rather than at the end, a bull market likely will be different as well.  Rather than eleven months like January, we expect more of a trudge higher.  We have likened last year to 1962, and would liken this year to 1963 – up some 18%.

February can be a difficult month, especially when January is a good one.  The numbers go something like up only 46% of the time, with losses far outweighing gains.  SentimenTrader.com points out, however, those and other numbers change rather significantly in pre-election years, with February up some 68% of the time.  Even more impressive is what follows in these years.  The period from February to July has a success rate of close to 85%.  The top performers in this pre-election period are Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Tech.  We favor the Materials ETF (XLB-82) and there is a Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY-150).  The good news/bad news there is that Amazon (98) is 23% of the holdings.  As for Tech generally, our feeling is stay away from last cycle’s names, including the FANGs.

Winston Churchill once remarked Americans always do the right thing, once they’ve tried everything else.  We were reminded of that watching Tuesday’s market following Powell‘s remarks.  The market had a great day, after doing all that it could to have a bad one.  We always find it impressive when the market has its chances to go down, but does not.  Still, after January’s run it seems reasonable to expect some flattening out.  While Tuesday’s reversal in price was impressive, the reversal in the A/Ds was at best adequate.  And Monday was the first bad day of the year – 3-to-1 down against a loss of only 35 Dow points.  Bad down days, however, are not the worry.  It’s the bad up days that get markets in trouble – up in the averages against lagging A/Ds.  The elephant in the room for now is leadership – always difficult this time of year and during changing market cycles.  A rising tide lifts all ships, but some of these were sunken ships – Carvana (12) from 5 to 20?  These “January Effect” bounces are nice, but keep in mind they’re not called February Effect.  We expect Commodity leadership to return, but they have lagged so far.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  34,053

Do you trust your thinking … or do you trust your eyes?  Logic suggests there’s unfinished business on the downside.  After all, as the Fed just made clear, it seems hell-bent in its serial tightening, unlikely to stop until the market drops.  Then there’s the matter of earnings which, to the surprise of no one, likely will be less than stellar.  Yet despite what might seem a logical expectation of lower prices, the market action has been quite impressive to the upside.  As of last Friday 67% of NYSE stocks were above their 200-day average – 70% says bull market.  Weekly 12-month new highs were 269 on the NYSE versus 31 new lows, on the NAZ 382 versus 128.  We just don’t see these numbers fitting in with the ongoing bear market thesis.  Without meaning to be too convoluted semantically, a big new leg down here would almost seem a new bear market, rather than a continuation of the old one.  Meanwhile, the possibility of a new bull market is certainly there, though it may not look as most might expect.

A few weeks ago we compared last year to 1962.  We don’t believe any two years completely match, but last year and 1962 are pretty close.  Moreover, it’s the pattern of buying and selling that seems of particular interest.  Both years saw declines pretty much from the start, and both saw those declines end in June, down 20%+ in both cases.  We don’t have numbers from 1962, but last year the number of weekly new lows totaled almost half the issues traded that week, or what you have to think were washout numbers.  In other words, that was the low for most stocks with later numbers not coming close.  In both years there was what seems a period of base building, a selloff in October both years, and a rally in December.  What followed in 1963 was an orderly but not dramatic sort of uptrend, leading to a year-end gain of about 18%.  No washout drama after the June low, and no upside drama in ‘63.

If you’re bearish, you’re thinking the Fed/earnings eventually will get to the market, stocks will leg down and then wash out.  It seems to us we’ve been there, done that – that being last June.  Without the downside drama, however, there likely will be less drama on the upside.  Why are the banks not rallying, how can a leader like CAT sell off, there always will be something to make you wonder.  Then, too, price leads and news follows – markets bottom some eight months before good news.  We have no dog in this hunt.  We are more trading than investing oriented.  We do understand that most are just the opposite, and we are simply trying to lay out here what we see in terms of bull versus bear, a longer term perspective.  From a short-term perspective, indicators like the A/Ds and new highs turned negative mid-October, positive again mid-December.  They remain positive.

When they say hope springs eternal, they might well be referring to spending on infrastructure.  To look at some of the relevant stocks, rather than the rhetoric, the reality just could be at hand.  We are thinking here of names like Granite Construction (43) and Sterling Infrastructure (36) where the names pretty much say it all.  There’s an ETF here, Global X US Development, PAVE (30).  This includes one of the market’s stronger stocks of late, United Rentals, URI (456).  The largest position is Nucor (177), where if you haven’t looked lately will surprise in a positive way.  The same can be said of Steel Dynamics (126), like Nucor almost tech-like.  There is also a Steel ETF, SLX (68), and, in this general area, you might also look to XME (58).

The bull/bear debate aside, a new year often presents challenges in terms of leadership.  In other words, it’s often confused.  Last year’s leaders have lagged, and laggards like Tech have led.  The ratio of Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Consumer Staples has risen by more than 20% over the last four weeks.  This is quite a change and can be construed positively as it suggests investor confidence has risen.  In the past this has led to gains in the S&P, though we tend to think of this more benignly – down the most becomes up the most temporarily.  We have been a bit negative on Tech but by no means all Tech.  There’s plenty of good if somewhat obscure names acting quite well, and the Semis are acting well.  It’s the winners from last cycle, the FANGs despite META (189), and the stay-at-homes that seem unlikely to repeat.  Think of the “Dot-coms” and the “Nifty Fifty” before them.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  33,044

Rock ‘n’ roll is here to stay… and Tech will never die.  Don’t tell that to Digital Equipment, Sun Microsystems, Burroughs, Control Data or Sperry Rand.  Tech may never die, but the names do change.  There are very few durable technology franchises.  Years ago Bernstein did a study which showed over a 40-year period, there was 1 chance in 7 that a “recognized” high growth tech stock could sustain that status for five years, and a 1 in 14 chance for 10 years.  Tech may be forever, but the players shift.  As it happens, this is a very positive seven months for Tech, at least as measured by the NAZ 100, the NDX or Q‘s.  Since its inception the NAZ has rallied all nine years between January 1 and July 31 in pre-election years, showing an average gain of 24%, according to SentimenTrader.com.  We suspect, however, RCA will not be among those Techs, though RCA really did change the world.

It’s not how you start the race, rather it’s how you finish.  After a fairly dismal December, it’s nice to see January start well, particularly as January has some forecasting value.  Last week’s pair of days with close to 4-to-1 A/Ds is what you like to see, and Friday’s upside reversal was impressive.  Perhaps most important in the overall pattern has been the increase in stocks above their 200-day to a recent peak of 57%.  As we noted, readings around 60% are indicative of good markets, 70% are associated with bull markets.  For now it seems a credible turn, but as Wednesday made clear, it won’t be easy.  When you think of market turning points it’s tempting to think straight up.  That’s rarely the case, and even less likely here.  This wasn’t a climax, washout low – that was back in May-June.  Any low here will be work.

Market strategists and stock analysts both basically analyze earnings.  The analysts nickel and dime you with their estimates – pretty much raising and lowering them to follow the price of any stock.  They are almost more “trend followers” than technical analysts.  Strategists are more big picture.  The analysts have trouble figuring out what one company will earn, strategists think they can figure out what 500 companies will earn, and then know what those earnings are worth.  Granted that in the long run companies that grow earnings do well, but that can be a long run.  Academic studies have found the stocks that outperform each year are those that beat analyst’s estimates, and vice versa.  So the best and worst performers are pretty much stocks where analysts are wrong.

Strategists assign multiples to overall earnings to determine valuations, and therefore the likely trend in the overall market.  The problem here is not in the use of earnings, but in the dependency on earnings.  Assuming that earnings are knowable, they’re only but one of the factors affecting stock prices.  Studies show as much as 70% of a stock’s price is determined by the overall market trend.  Throw in the importance of group rotation – think of Energy last year – and there’s not a whole lot left for the importance of earnings.  One of our favorite examples here is McDonald’s (264) back in the 70s and early 80s.  MCD in 1973 peaked around 75, fell to 22 in 1974, and recovered to 66 in 1976.  It then did nothing for the next five years, though earnings continued to grow at a compounded rate of 25%.  All the time, the company never missed a quarter.  Despite that by its 1980 low MCD was selling at 10x trailing 12 months compared with selling at 75x in 1973.

It’s Groundhog Day – again.  It’s surprising and disappointing the market keeps reacting to the same news.  Rates are going higher – who knew?  At some point bad news gets discounted.  Then, too, after a good run the market may have been due for a little reality check.  In any event, a couple of bad days don’t negate a surge in the ADs, stocks above their 200-day and the pickup in 12-month new highs.  This wasn’t a washout low.  If a viable low it would be the kind you have to work for.  We still favor Commodity-related stocks like Freeport (44) and Caterpillar (246) – China re-opening.  The pre-election year seasonal pattern for the NAZ is hard to ignore, but the winners of last cycle, the FANG+, seem unlikely to win again.  We’ve highlighted a few that we favor.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  34,189

They didn’t see it coming … and they won’t see it going.  The Fed isn’t very good at forecasting inflation, or recessions for that matter.  It’s joked the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions, yet that’s still better than the Fed.  Naturally, we’ll take our chances with the market.  The idea, “don’t fight the Fed” is real enough, but so too is “the trend is your friend.”  With some 50% of stocks now above their 200-day moving average, the trend is moving higher.  So how is it the market keeps ignoring the Fed’s jawboning and serial rate hikes?  Could it be the market is doing its own forecasting?

The market’s other big worry is the likely downturn in earnings this year.  Yet if everyone shares that fear, the chances are good it’s already discounted.  And, after all, there’s a reason the market was down 20% or more last year.  Earnings always are a bit tricky.  They matter in the long run, but that run can indeed be long.  Market trend and group rotation often play a bigger role.  And there’s the matter of timing.  In market downtrends like this one, prices typically bottom some 10 months ahead of a bottom in earnings.  In other words, wait for the trough in earnings, and you’re some 10 months late to a new bull market.  An emphasis on earnings at the late stages of a bear market seems a misdirected exercise.  Earnings and the rest of the news will always be bad at market lows.

If you look at Freeport McMoran (45), the Fed isn’t going to change that chart, and it’s not about earnings.  It’s about China.  China bottomed back in October and pretty much has not looked back.  The Hang Seng (HSCI-HK 3224) has rallied some 30% from its low back then, a move that has taken it above its 200-day average.  More importantly, some 70% of the component stocks are above their own 200-day.  The rule, so to speak, is 60% is a good market, 70% a bull market.  The previous two bear market rallies here ended with fewer than half the stocks above the 200-day.  The EEM Fund of Emerging Market stocks has rallied more than 20% off of the latest two year low, also suggesting a new bull market.  You can’t help but think this will be a positive for our markets.

In the last 12 months the market has closely tracked the pattern of 1962.  Most striking in the resemblance is the relentless decline into a June low.  In both cases a subsequent rally was followed by an October test, a lower low last year but not in 1962.   A recovery followed into December and a new uptrend in 1963.  This, of course, seems more than a little intriguing, but we don’t believe market patterns necessarily repeat.  What does repeat, however, is patterns within markets.  Markets peak a few stocks at a time, which is why the Advance-Decline Index is an important guide to market deterioration.  In this case the peak was late 2021.  Stocks eventually washed out in May-June when on a weekly basis close to half the issues trading on the New York and NAZ reached 12-month lows.  While the average stock peaks before the stock averages, market downtrends eventually get to everything, including shares of former holdouts like Apple (133), Microsoft (239) and Tesla (124), as happened recently.  When it comes to stock behavior, we’ve seen play out a typical bear market pattern.

Bull market, bear market rally, for now what matters is it’s a credible rally.  Most stocks made their lows last May, for the averages it’s all about the momentum from here.  If like the Hang Seng S&P stocks above their 200-day make it to 70%, that would argue bull market.  Tech of course will rebound, but for most these seem the stocks of the last rodeo.  We favor Oil, despite last year‘s success.  Obviously, it had some news at its back but it also had the advantage of being under-owned.  That’s always something to consider and why we recently singled out under-owned names like Boeing (214) and GE (79).  Looking at a stock like Caterpillar (255), it’s hard to see a recession, and much the same for Deere (436).  Those Advance-Decline numbers offered an important clue to this rally, being sometimes positive against losses in the averages.  They are likely to offer a similar clue to the rally’s end.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA: 32,930

Last year was so tough …even the liars didn’t make money. It wasn’t a good year to chase rallies – the S&P lost 0.24% on the day following a big up day. On top of that, buying the dips didn’t work. The S&P saw 63 sessions that had a 1% loss, but went on to lose 0.29% the following day, according to SentimenTrader.com. Don’t follow strength but don’t buy weakness – that makes for a tough year. The good news, stocks tended to rebound after similar years. The price action has had a positive impact on investor psychology. The Citi Panic/Euphoria Model published in Barron’s shows some of its lowest readings in years. The higher the model, readings of euphoria, lower returns are to be expected. The lower the model, readings of panic, positive returns are expected. When the model is below zero, as it is now, since 1993 the S&P’s annualized return was more than 15%. As for the market averages, they’re in downtrends, which is to say below their various moving averages. And some of the indicators we look to such as new highs and Advance-Decline numbers turned negative in early December and remain so. These, by the way, had turned positive in mid-October and are not so prone to quick reversals as are others. That said, like the market these measures have stabilized recently. Going into January the market has had its share of bad days but almost surprisingly, its share of good days. When the averages are down you can expect the A/Ds to be negative. When the averages are up, the A/Ds should be correspondingly up, though in weak markets that’s not always the case. So far there has not been what we call bad up days – up days in the averages with flat or worse A/Ds. Last year’s market pattern fits in with our complaint about the charts – there are good charts but few good charts that are working. When you can’t buy the dips the way you used to, that’s a tough market. When you can’t buy strength, that’s a really tough market. The latest here was Tuesday’s disappointing action in energy, particularly the oil equipment stocks. There were few better charts. Semis are a bit all over the place but not that long ago the equipment makers seemed to be acting much better. That was of some interest in that the semis bottomed in late 2008, well ahead of the market bottom in March 2009. However, using ASML (565) as an example, its seemingly impressive break out around 620 back in mid-December failed, resulting in a move back below its 50-day. This could be a good year for gold – where have you heard that before. Finally the dollar is going the right way, which for gold and most commodities is lower. And while the stock ETF, GDX (31), is dancing around its 200- day, the commodity ETF, GLD (171), is well above that level. Both, of course, are above their 50- day averages and those look about to cross above the 200-day, the “golden cross,” if you believe in such things. The better patterns reflect what has been a dramatic momentum shift. Back in October most gold shares were below their 200-day while now at least half are above that level. This kind of change can be important, but here too follow-through seems the key. Gold over time has had more than its fair share of false starts, but when it works it often works big. Could Boeing (205) be stock of the year? Certainly both the stock and the business have been through the wringer. Still, it’s hard to give up on a company with something like a 40% share of a worldwide market, especially since the chart has turned positive. Joined at the hip in its way is GE (71), which seems to be doing better in its own right. Following bad years like this last one you have to be careful following stocks that worked in those years. That said, the oil service stocks like Halliburton (39) still look positive. Layoffs mean business is bad, yet Salesforce (136) rallied on the news. We get the logic, but had it been down we get that logic as well. Then there is the conundrum of the housing market. Rates have had their impact on home sales, but not on home builders? Earnings will be bad this year, even technical analysts know that. We also know stocks bottom some 10 months ahead of earnings. If it happens, this would be the most anticipated recession ever. Then, too, if contrary opinion always worked, this would be postmarked The South of France.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  33,027

Here comes Santa … with his Santa Claus rally?  Santa Claus rally, oversold rally, for now it’s all the same.  Since there usually isn’t much weakness in December, markets usually don’t get oversold in December.  A reflection of the recent weakness, at least by our measure, this market was more oversold than any time since September.  This may well have prompted the recent rally, but it is itself not a wonderful sign – good markets don’t become too oversold.  And just last week, the market did become a not so good market as the Advance-Decline numbers and new Highs /Lows turned negative.  Last week also saw outside down weeks in the averages – a higher high and lower low than the prior week.  And the S&P and NAZ slipped below their 50-day averages.  Not an auspicious start to any rally, but sufficient until the day. 

If it’s unusual to see a deeply oversold market in December, it is similarly unusual to see investor bearishness in this historically positive month.  Yet option traders have placed record bets against stocks.  A couple of months ago there was a surge in option bets against stocks greater than anything since the financial crisis.  This preceded an S&P rally of some 13%.  According to SentimenTrader.com, large traders have bought to open the fewest equity Call options relative to Put options since 2009.  Some $1.1 billion Call options were bought while $19 billion Put options were bought.  It is among the largest net bet against stocks, and this in December.  Put-Call ratios among stocks in the NASDAQ 100, S&P Technology sector and Financials all hit records last week. 

Suddenly everyone is a monetary expert.  Investors dislike the current monetary policy thinking it’s a mistake.  The consensus of fund managers and certainly commentators, is fixed on lower inflation and a recession next year.  Higher rates in the short term will only make things worse, or so the view goes.  As the mistake grows clear, central banks will be forced to pivot.  A monthly Bank of America Fund Manager Survey found that investors expect government bonds to be next year’s best performing asset.  Meanwhile, equity bearishness is no mystery.  It’s understood by most that a profits recession is at hand.  According to the survey, bearishness among fund managers when it comes to earnings is the highest on record, even higher than 2009.  Hence the Fund Manager Survey showing them the most overweight bonds compared to stocks since 2009.  What followed back then, of course, was the great rally in equities.

It’s that time of year when it’s nice to have your Deere (436) ones around you – even the Caterpillars (238).  These would be among our choices for next year as well, together with names like Home Depot (316), McDonald’s (266) and General Mills (85).  A bit less familiar would be names like AXON Enterprise (168), the former Taser, ETSY (127), and Sarepta (132).  We’re trying to be bullish on Oil, but most are still correcting.  As it happens, some of the equipment names like Halliburton (38) and Transocean (4) seem to be acting better than the rest.  Pharma is more than holding its own, particularly those middlemen like McKesson (382), Amerisource (169), and Cardinal Health (81).  Finally, there’s Gold, where hope springs eternal.  All the miners were below their 200-day in October.  Half are now above that level, an important momentum shift.  If they’re able to hold together into the New Year, it may finally be a good one.

The average investor is said to be wrong at the extremes, but right in between.  Contrary opinion is always useful, provided you pick the right time and place to be contrary.  Certainly poor earnings and/or the looming recession are among the things to consider here.  They might already be discounted by this year’s bear market.  With a recession looming it’s surprising the number of industrial stocks that have been acting better than you might have expected.  As always, it’s best to let the market tell the story.  It is after all, the market where we are investing, not the economy.  And the market should not be confused with the market averages.  Rather, the market is the average stock, where the averages eventually follow.  Strength in the averages needs participation, that is, comparable strength in the Advance-Decline numbers.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  33,202

Sell the news …especially good news.  That proved true to an extreme on Tuesday, but in this market follow-through has been hard to come by any old time.  There are plenty of good charts, but good charts not doing much of anything.  Then, too, it’s a positive time of year, but a time of year when you don’t typically expect the dramatic.  Tuesday’s reversal was rather dramatic.  We had our 500-point rally on Monday, so some of the good news arguably was already in.  And a somewhat overlooked part of the Tuesday drama was that Advance-Declines were close to 3-to-1 up.  The previous month’s CPI held onto an 800-point Dow gain, but with A/Ds only a little better than 2-to-1.  We’ll take the better A/D numbers anytime.

As it happens, NYSE Advance-Decline numbers have been disappointing of late, having peaked three weeks ago.  An adjusted measure of A/Ds turned negative just a few days ago, worrisome in that this measure pretty much nailed the low in mid-October.  A cumulative measure of new highs/lows also called the October low pretty well and now is teetering on a sell signal.  So some technical concerns have arisen, against the always to be respected December seasonal pattern.  The second half of the month, and certainly that last week of the year, tends to be particularly positive.  Even here, however, it’s important to keep an eye on those A/D numbers, especially on up days.  You don’t want to see poor participation when the market is up.

If not one thing it’s another for Cathie Wood.  She just spent a couple of years suffering with an array of stay-at-home stocks whose time has passed, but her portfolios were somewhat held together by Tesla (158).  Now most of the losers at least have stopped going down, but it has been Tesla’s turn.  And it’s not just that it’s down in some sort of normal correction, a look at the monthly charge is worrisome.  Meta (116) of course is another name seemingly passed its glory days market-wise, although a banning of TikTok, if it comes to pass, should help there.  Another over-owned stock not acting so well is Apple (137), which as yet has no serious break.  It’s hard to stay on top, just ask Cisco Systems (48) or GE (79), both once the largest stocks by market cap.  Meanwhile, we have touted McDonald’s (272) versus Microsoft (249).  We still like McDonald’s, but have come around to Microsoft.  Like the S&P, it too may have difficulty with its 200-day, as it did in August.

Bad news from Wall Street often isn’t bad news at all.  Bloomberg recently pointed out that Wall Street strategists are the most pessimistic in 22 years, calling for a decline in the S&P next year.  Most have turned progressively more negative in this worst year since the financial crisis.  Strategists take a top down view while analysts do pretty much the opposite, focusing on individual company earnings prospects.  Despite the different approach, their analysis has been just as negative.  A few weeks ago there were a net 150 downgrades in a single day, the third most in 12 years.  Other times of record downgrades coincided with important lows, according to SentimenTrader.com.  There is a small sample size here, but Wall Street pessimism often has been a good sign for the market.

It’s a tough time of the year to be bearish.  Unfortunately, that’s not to say it’s wrong to be bearish.  The technical backdrop has shown deterioration and the market didn’t exactly ignore Powell’s revisit of Jackson Hole.  As always, it’s not the news, it’s what the market does with it.  Wednesday’s reaction wasn’t terrible, in fact it looked more undecided.  As often happens after these events, the real reaction comes the day after, and that did look terrible.  We were a bit surprised at the market’s surprise, as we have come to think more hikes were priced in and recession is the worry, a worry made clear by oil’s failure to respond to the China reopening.  We all know year-end is favorable and the New Year likely weak.  When it comes to the stock market, however, what we all know isn’t worth knowing.  There’s a catch here somewhere.  The way they’re acting, it could be here at year-end.

Frank D. Gretz

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DJIA:  33,781

Now there’s a pivot… but it’s in China.  It’s not the much vaunted Fed pivot most are hoping for, but it suddenly made China not non-investable again.  You might recall just a couple of weeks ago protests there jolted our market some 500 Dow points.  Markets there, however, not only didn’t flinch, until Wednesday they never looked back.  Nearly all Chinese technology stocks have moved above their 50-day averages, and more than half are above their 200-day averages.  As we’ve seen in other areas like Materials, for example, surges to all up from all down have medium and even longer term implications.  Stocks like JD.com (60) and BABA (94) are up 60 to 70% just since their October low.  Of course you have to wonder what happens when Covid numbers start increasing.

As you would imagine, better news out of China is better news for most of the commodities complex.  Nonetheless, the better action in steel stocks is a bit of a surprise.  As it happens, there’s an ETF here which pretty much captures the spirit of the move, though many of the top 10 holdings are not exactly household names.  We would point to Steel Dynamics (110) as an interesting chart, though Nucor (151) seems everyone’s go-to steel, and is also technically positive.  Conspicuous in not responding has been oil.  The stocks not only have not rallied, in some cases they’ve turned weak enough to test their 50-day averages.  That’s now likely to require some rebuilding before any resumption of the overall uptrends.  Meanwhile, more to do with dollar weakness, gold shares have acted well.

We haven’t favored Tech, and so far rightly so.  Of course, not all Tech is the same and to that point, not all semiconductors are the same.  While the AMDs (70) and Microns (55) struggle, the guys that make the stuff that make the stuff, the equipment manufacturers, have acted quite well.  We’re thinking here of stocks like AMAT (109), ASML (607) and KLA Corp. (396).  On the other end of the product spectrum, soup seems good food, at least to judge by Campbell’s (57) recent numbers and its stock performance.  Our pick might be General Mills (88) based on the overall chart, but once again it’s the concept that seems important here.  These defensive/slow growth names have performed quite well.  It’s sort of that MCD (273) versus MSFT (247) idea.

Pity the poor DJIA.  It’s outperforming and still it’s maligned.  Could it just be Shakespeare’s green-eyed monster?  After all, the S&P is down some 17%, the NASDAQ 30% and the Dow only about 5%.  Meanwhile, Wall Street benchmarks to the S&P, for them in this case a good thing.  In reality, of course, they might benchmark to the S&P but they own the NASDAQ.  It’s those Tech stocks that are stinking up the place.  The Dow now has its Salesforce (130), down close to 50% this year, while even Microsoft is off close to 30%.  We often wondered if the nice people at Dow Jones are just bad stock pickers.  Then it was explained they simply try to choose stocks representative of the market or economy at the time.  The problem is things change, and when it comes to Tech nothing changes faster.

Year end is all you can imagine, literally.  There are, as they like to say, cross currents and as you’ve noticed, a tendency for weakness early on.  The S&P still struggles with its 200-day average, but unlike August when that recovery died, this time far more S&P components are above their own 200-day averages, an important difference.  Meanwhile, stocks above their 50-day average have cycled from 3% to 90%, a momentum change with positive 6-to-12 implications.  If you simply look at volume on days when the market rallies, it tends to expand and contract into weakness.  That’s not the most sophisticated insight you’ll find, but sometimes the simple things work.  Probably the most positive week of the year is that between Christmas and New Year’s, but with one of our favorite cautionary notes.  If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears will come to Broad and Wall.

Frank D. Gretz

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