US Strategy Weekly: A Fed Primer

This is a week filled with potential market-moving events that include the July FOMC meeting, the first look at second quarter economic activity and 172 earnings results for companies in the S&P 500 index. Each of these events will have important implications for equity investors, but in our view, second quarter earnings results will be the most significant since these will help define where value is found in the equity market.

75-basis points and the Treasury Curve

In terms of monetary policy, the consensus is expecting a 75-basis point increase in the fed funds rate this week and we think this should prove accurate. In recent months the Fed has had a pattern of either matching consensus expectations for monetary policy changes or signaling its intentions well in advance of changes. In short, the Fed displays no desire to surprise, or stress, the financial markets and as a result, the expectation of a 75-basis point hike is probably discounted in current stock prices. However, we are less certain that the longer-term ramifications of a 75-basis point increase has been fully priced into equities, particularly if the economy slips into a recession.

The Treasury yield curve is currently flat, although it is technically inverted between the 6-month and 10-year Treasury note benchmarks. This makes a 75-basis point increase on the short end of the curve important since it is possible that the entire yield curve could invert shortly after the July Fed meeting. Keep in mind that a 75-basis point increase this week and the 75- or 50-basis point increase expected in September could raise the short end of the curve as much as 150 basis points. See page 3.

What makes the Treasury yield curve important at this juncture is that it has been better than most economists in terms of predicting a recession. A long history of the Treasury yield curve, focusing on the 1-year to 10-year curve, shows that in nine of the eleven inversions since 1956, an inverted yield curve has been followed by an economic recession, typically within eight months. (The range has been zero months (1957) to fourteen months (1978).) The only exceptions to this were in September 1966 — when a five-month inversion was not followed by a recession — and in September 1998 — when a four-month inversion did not result in a recession. Yet more recently, as in 2000, 2006 and 2019, inverted yield curves were followed by a recession within six to eight months. See page 4.

Quantitative Tightening and Money Supply

Yet as we focus on the fed funds rate and the yield curve, it is important to point out that rates are not the only tool in the Fed’s arsenal. While the Fed is expected to raise rates at each meeting this year, it also has indicated its intention to shrink its balance sheet. The $1.6 trillion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet between January 2021 and March 2022 was implemented during an expanding economy and it was a contributing factor to the stock market’s advance and current inflation. However, as of June 1, 2022, the Fed began reducing the reinvestment of principal payments in Treasury securities by $30 billion per month and will increase this amount to $60 billion per month beginning September 1^st. For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the reinvestment reductions are $17.5 billion and $35 billion per month. In short, the liquidity balloon that has been propelling stock prices higher since early 2020 is slowly deflating. But this is important in terms of reducing money in circulation, or money supply.

Another part of the Fed’s stimulus program was the elimination of required reserves for banks. The removal of this requirement in March 2020 resulted in a huge jump in excess reserves in the banking system and a massive increase in money supply. See page 5. This was an unusual tool for the Fed since there are laws that require banks and other depository institutions to hold a certain fraction of their deposits in reserve, in very safe, secure assets. This has been a part of our nation’s banking history for many years and “required” reserves are designed to ensure the liquidity of bank notes and deposits, particularly during times of financial strains.*

Nevertheless, in March 2020 the banking system was suddenly awash in liquidity. The 6-month rate-of-change in M2 (i.e., M2 money stock – a measure of the amount of currency in circulation) jumped to 19.5% in July 2020, an all-time record. The linkage between money supply and inflation is well-known by economists and was surely known by Fed officials. Yet this was the quandary of 2020 and 2021 for economists, strategists, and investors. Money supply fuels inflation but it also fuels stock prices. It was a double-edged sword. However, as liquidity is now being withdrawn to temper inflation, the underlying booster for equities is gone. Unfortunately, the longer-term problem of inflation remains.

GDP and Housing

Second quarter GDP will be released this week and it may answer the question of whether the US is currently in a recession, or on the brink of one. We continue to focus on the housing sector since it represents 17% to 19% of GDP in any given quarter. Unfortunately, recent news releases have not been encouraging. New home sales were 590,000 in June, down 17.4% YOY and down from 642,000 units in May. The average price of a single-family home fell to $456,800 in June, the lowest price in 12 months, but still up 5.8% YOY. The NAR affordability index dropped to 105.2 in May, which was its worst level since August 2006. However, the June, July and August readings are apt to move lower as the impact of rising mortgage rates negatively impacts potential buyers. See page 7.

Earnings and Valuations

To date, second quarter earnings season has been mixed, but a clearer picture may be available by the end of the week, or once we pass the midpoint of earnings season. We are noticing that many companies are making or exceeding revenue forecasts but are missing estimates on the bottom line. This was to be expected due to the rising cost of labor, transportation, and raw materials, but it is not good for earnings overall. Last week, the S&P Dow Jones consensus earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 fell $2.48 and $0.36, respectively. Refinitiv IBES consensus earnings forecasts rose $0.01 and fell $0.76, respectively. This disparity between S&P Dow Jones and IBES is typical in the second half of the year since S&P adjusts earnings for GAAP accounting while IBES simply aggregates estimates. We measure “value” in the equity market by the S&P Dow Jones data.

Following S&P’s cut in its 2022 forecast to $220.21 this estimate is now in line with our forecast of $220, a 5.7% YOY increase from $208.19 in 2021. This earnings quarter will be important, and we will be looking closely at margins and the impact margin pressure may have on our $220 forecast.

All in all, none of this changes our view that the equity market is bottoming but may not have found its ultimate low. We continue to emphasize that recession/inflation proof segments of the market like energy, staples, defense-related stocks, and utilities where earnings are most predictable in this difficult environment. *https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/0693lead.pdf

Gail Dudack

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