US Strategy Weekly: A Tale of Two Cities

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Momentum Shift

After a strong four-week advance off the October lows, US equities retreated this week. Part of the retreat was due to a string of weak earnings reports from retail companies, but stocks also stalled from a lack of news that could move stocks higher. Even a positive earnings report from chip designer, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA – $499.44), failed to impress, and the stock traded lower in after-market trading. Nvidia noted in its earnings report that it faces challenges in both Israel, where employees are being called up for active duty, and in China, where sales will be affected by US export controls. The release of FOMC minutes confirmed the consensus view that the Fed is apt to be on hold, barring any bad news on the inflation front. This is a positive factor, but it has already been discounted by rising stock prices.

However, the technical condition of the market did improve in the last week. Trading on November 14 recorded a 91% up day, i.e., volume in advancing stocks represented 91% of total NYSE volume. In addition, the NYSE total volume for the day rose above the 10-day average. This combination displayed a positive shift in conviction. (Note that our indicators use NYSE volume versus composite volume to separate day trading and professional hedging from actual buyers and sellers.) The 10-day average of daily new highs rose to 122, above the 100 benchmark that helps define an uptrend, while the 10-day average of daily new lows fell to 79, below the 100 benchmark. This combination also reversed a negative trend that had been in place since mid-September. See page 12.

Nevertheless, our 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at a negative 0.40 reading this week and neutral. See page 11. This lackluster response, despite several strong days of upward momentum, does not surprise us since it is in line with our view that the market is long-term trendless. Our view that the equity market will remain in a wide trading range, a substitute for a bear market, has not changed.

The charts of the popular equity indices continue to be bullish with the first level of resistance seen at the July highs and the second level of resistance found at the all-time highs. The key levels to watch in coming days are 4600 in the S&P 500, which is roughly the July high and the 1830 area of the Russell 2000 index where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages merge. These levels pose near-term challenges for these equity indices and will help define the strength of the current advance. The favorable seasonality of the November, December, and January months are in the stock market’s favor, but it was disappointing that the Russell 2000 index was the worst performing index in this week’s pullback. We do not expect year-end strength to carry the indices to new highs and this suggests that the long-term trading ranges will remain intact.

The Economy is a Tale of Two Cities

Strategists can be broken down into two distinct groups of those looking for a recession and those looking for a soft landing. However, the underlying data drives this division.

The positive factors include October’s headline CPI showing a 3.2% YOY rise, the PPI for finished goods falling 0.4% YOY, and the price of crude oil down 3.8% YOY. This combination makes a lower inflation outlook seem probable. Some inflation benchmarks are still higher with core CPI at 4% and core PPI at 3.2%, but overall, most inflation benchmarks are now below the long-term CPI average of 3.4% YOY. In short, inflation is lower, and if not yet at 2%, it is still below average. See page 3. This coupled with a job environment that is neither robust, nor weak, makes a soft landing credible.

However, this would be the first time in history that inflation at or approaching a double-digit pace, was not followed by a series of recessions. And it would be the first time that the real fed funds rate did not have to rise to 400 basis points before an inflationary trend was reversed. See page 4. We believe the jury is still out whether the current 200 basis points in the real fed funds rate will cure inflation. See page 4.

Neither the last recession nor economic recovery were normal business cycles. The recession was the result of a mandated shutdown of the economy and the recovery was the result of historic stimulus policies by both the administration and the Fed. Does this mean it will be different this time? It is difficult to tell. Inflation is a cruel tax on the lower end of the income spectrum, and this is what sparks a recession. We can see this in the current economy, which is a tale of two cities, i.e., the wealthy and the poor.

Retail sales were down slightly in October, but up 2.5% YOY. However, if adjusted for inflation, real retail sales fell 0.7% YOY in October and were negative for 10 of the last twelve months. Negative real retail sales is typical of a recessionary economy. See page 6.

Consumer credit growth has been decelerating all year, which is not a surprise given the rise in interest rates and interest costs. However, the most disturbing development is the increase in the number of people taking hardship withdrawals from their 401k plans. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC – $42.60) reported a rise in such withdrawals last week and Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS – $53.90) reported a similar trend this week. These withdrawals are a sign that many households are in very poor financial shape. Moreover, it suggests that future consumption trends will likely slow in the US. This is in line with weak reports from retailers in the third quarter. See page 7.

The housing market had been a boost to the economy in the first half of the year, but that has changed in recent months. Existing home sales were 3.79 million in October, the slowest pace in 13 years. Housing affordability is at its lowest level since 1985 and the NAHB survey is at its lowest levels since the start of the year. It is clear that rising rates are taking a toll on housing. See page 8. The 2023 economy has been a division of the haves and the have-nots, and the question is will higher income families keep the economy afloat in 2024, or not? It is an important question since the recent rally has carried the averages back to a relatively rich level. S&P Dow Jones consensus estimates for 2023 and 2024 are $214.65 and $242.73, respectively, down $0.53, and $0.60, respectively, this week. LSEG IBES estimates for 2023 and 2024 are $220.38 and $244.98, down $0.24, and $0.33, respectively. Based upon the IBES EPS estimate of $220.38 for this year, equities remain overvalued with a PE of 20.6 times and inflation of 3.24%. This sum of 23.84 is fractionally above the 23.8 level that defines an overvalued equity market. Note: based upon the S&P estimate of $214.65, the 2023 PE is even higher at 21.1 times.  

Gail Dudack

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