US Strategy Weekly: A Three-stock Rally

Apple, Inc. (AAPL – $207.15) shares jumped over 7% to a record high after announcing that later this year the “Apple Intelligence” platform – its foray into the generative AI space — will be integrated across the company’s hardware and software products using M1 chips or higher. Apple’s surge lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs and boosted Apple’s market capitalization by $215 billion to $3.18 trillion. According to Dow Jones Market Data, this was the third-largest one-day market cap surge in history, and it also made AAPL the second-largest stock in the S&P 500. Apple is now second only to Microsoft Corp. (MSFT – $432.68) with a market cap of $3.22 trillion. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA – $120.91) is currently in third place with a market cap of $2.97 trillion. Together, these three stocks now represent 21% of the S&P 500’s $44.3 trillion market cap. The concentration of performance continues to narrow.

Apple was not the only news of the day. Stocks were also supported by bonds after a solid $39 billion Treasury sale triggered speculation that this week’s CPI reading may help build the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year. Demand in the auction of 10-year debt was strong, with the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67, the highest since February 2022, or prior to the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Treasuries were also seen as a safe haven vehicle given the current political upheaval in Europe. French stocks and bonds were rattled this week after French President Emmanuel Macron’s political party suffered a defeat in the European Parliament election over the weekend. Macron called for a snap parliamentary election that will take place in two rounds concluding on July 7. Macron was not the only European leader to see this weekend’s election results shift power to the conservative right, but the political risk of a snap election in France resulted in a sell-off in French banking stocks and sovereign bonds. To make matters worse, S&P Global Ratings had downgraded France last week. In sum, US Treasuries became the beneficiaries of European turmoil.

In the US, a survey conducted by 22V Research showed that most investors are betting that both the consumer price index and the Fed decision will be “risk on” events. According to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, 41% plurality of economists expect the Fed to signal two cuts in the closely watched “dot plot,” while an equal number expect the forecasts to show just one or no cuts at all. We would put ourselves in the latter category. Inflation has not been tamed, in our view, and the economy is showing both strength and weakness, which should give the Fed pause until a clearer trend appears.

It was a busy week for economic releases. The NFIB small business optimism index rose 0.8 points to 90.5, the highest level since December. Job openings, hiring plans, capex plans, and plans to raise prices all rose, while most other components fell. The uncertainty index jumped 7 points to 85, the highest since November 2020. Actual earnings, sales, sales expectations, inventory satisfaction, and inventory plans all fell in May. It was confusing to see hiring and capex plans increase as earnings and sales declined. See page 3.

Similarly, May’s ISM indices showed a mixed picture. The manufacturing index fell to 48.7, the 18th reading below 50 in the last 19 months. The nonmanufacturing index rose to 53.8, up nicely from its first reading below 50 since December 2022. Business activity fell to 50.2 for manufacturing but jumped to 61.2 for nonmanufacturing, the highest since November 2022. Ironically, employment rose to 51.1 for manufacturing, one of the highest readings in 2 years, while nonmanufacturing employment also rose, but remained below 50 at 47.1. See page 4.

The employment report for May was far better than expected, showing a gain of 272,000 new jobs, and previous months were revised down by only 15,000. Our concern is the discrepancy between the household and establishment surveys. The establishment survey shows job growth of 1.8% YOY in April and May, better than the long-term average of 1.69% YOY. However, the household survey shows near-zero job growth of 0.3% YOY in April and 0.2% YOY in May. This survey is important since a negative annual growth rate in total jobs has historically been a key indicator of a recession. Moreover, the household survey showed a decline in employment, a decline in the civilian labor force, and an increase in those unemployed in May. These numbers help explain why the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in May. See page 5.

Average hourly earnings rose 4.2% YOY in May, up from 4.1% YOY in April. This gives the impression of accelerating wage growth. But, after adjusting for inflation, average hourly earnings rose 0.74% YOY, just slightly better than the 0.70% recorded in April. See page 6. Total private weekly earnings were $1197.41 in May, up 3.8% YOY; while production and non-supervisory weekly earnings averaged $1013.66, up 4.2% YOY. However, if indexed to inflation, average real weekly earnings for non-supervisory workers rose 0.7% YOY and were down 3% from the May 2020 cyclical peak. See page 7. In short, due to inflation, the purchasing power of households has been declining for the last four years.

On page 8, an overlay of the growth rate of inflation and average weekly earnings helps display when, and how much, inflation eats into earnings. This chart also shows that when inflation has been higher than wage growth for a period of time (like it was for all of 2022), a recession follows. This is logical since inflation is negative for consumption. But, in this cycle, a variety of fiscal stimulus programs has compensated for falling real wages and prevented a recession. One positive sign for the economy is that average weekly hours, which have been declining since the post-pandemic spike, have begun to slowly increase in recent months. See page 8.

The Federal Reserve is not expected to change its policy this week, but the inflation data released for May could have an impact on both future Fed policy and the stock market. While many inflation benchmarks have generally been decelerating, recent data has been mixed. We are less optimistic than most about rate cuts because in past tightening cycles the Fed has increased rates until the real fed funds rate reached a minimum of 400 basis points. The recent peak in the current cycle was 270 basis points in April. This may not be enough to beat inflation. See page 9.

Several other factors concern us. After the June 2022 CPI peak, what dampened inflation was the fact that energy prices were falling for most of 2023 and were negative on a year-over-year basis. But even with Biden’s recent release of oil from the strategic oil reserve, WTI prices remain firm, and the price of oil was up over 13% YOY in May and up nearly 11% YOY in June, to date. This could be a hurdle for inflation in the coming months. Many economists still suggest CPI would be at 2% or lower if owners’ equivalent rent was excluded. This is simply not true. The CPI index less shelter and the index less food and shelter have been trending higher for the last 12 months. This debunks the theory that owners’ equivalent rent is driving inflation this year. See page 10. There was little change in technical indicators this week. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite made new highs this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a record high on May 17, 2024. The Russell 2000 index remains 17% below its high of 2442.74 made on November 8, 2021. Both the Russell and the DJIA are trading below their 50-day and 100-day moving averages this week. See page 13. The 25-day up/down volume oscillator remains close to zero, a sign that volume in advancing stocks has been equal to volume in declining stocks. See page 14.

Gail Dudack

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