US Strategy Weekly: Beware What You Wish For

US job openings in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly two and a half years and equity investors rejoiced. The news triggered a 292.69-point gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, carrying the index just 5.3% below its all-time high of 36,799.65 high and to a gain of 5.1% year-to-date. The JOLTS report also showed that the number of people quitting their jobs fell to the lowest level seen since early 2021, which implies jobholders feel that switching jobs has become more difficult. More importantly, the employment report for August will be released at the end of this week and it too could be a market-moving event, particularly if it confirms a below-consensus increase in jobs. However, we would be wary of being bullish about bad economic news since bad news inches the economy closer to a recession and a recession has never been good for corporate earnings or for equity prices.

We have often noted that high inflation has a debilitating impact on consumer purchasing power, corporate profit margins, and price-earnings multiples. It erodes the value of the dollar and of savings. In short, it is bad for all parts of the economy. And this is why we believe the Federal Reserve is likely to be more hawkish than dovish for all of 2023. In our opinion, the Fed understands that an inflation target of 2% will not be that easy to achieve without slowing the economy down. And while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has danced around the question of whether a recession or no recession is part of the inflation solution, slowing inflation without a recession would be like threading a tiny needle … possible but difficult. 

History shows that whenever inflation has had a rapid rise or has been more than a standard deviation above the norm (6.5%+), like the 9% seen in June 2022, it has always been followed by a recession. A recession is most often the result of tighter monetary policy which has generally ended with a real fed funds rate of at least 400 basis points. Perhaps it will be “different this time” but that is a risky view, in our estimation. See the historical charts on page 3.

For the real fed funds rate to reach 400 basis points today, with a 3% inflation rate, means the fed funds rate would rise to 7%. We are not predicting a 7% rate, but we do believe the fed funds rate is likely to move higher in September and this would be a negative surprise to the consensus. It could also be a dampener to economic activity in the months ahead.

Is Bad News Good News?

In line with the JOLTS report, the regional Federal Reserve activity reports were a mixed bag. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey was at zero in August, but up from negative 11 in July. The Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Survey was negative 0.5 in August, down from 2.0 in July. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey was negative 7.0 in August, up from negative 9.0 in July. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was 0.12 in July, up from negative 0.33 in June. The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey was minus 17.2 in August, up from minus 20.0 in July. All in all, these surveys were not a recessionary package, but neither were they a sign of strength.

As interest rates rise the biggest impact may be seen in the housing and auto sectors, two areas that have been a source of strength since the pandemic. New home sales rose 4.4% in July to 714,000, an increase of 31.5% from a year earlier. The median price of a single-family home rose 4.8% in the month to $436,700, but this was down nearly 9% YOY. Home prices and sales have been relatively stable, but primarily due to a lack of inventory. The supply of existing family homes rose fractionally in July to 3.2 months, nevertheless, this is a historically low level. While low supply has been what has supported the residential market, we worry that demand may eventually fall as a result of high prices and interest rates. See page 4. Rising mortgage rates are already hurting housing affordability, which is currently at its lowest level since 1985. This is a concern since housing typically represents 15% to 18% of GDP. See page 5.

The auto industry is also hurt by higher prices and rising interest rates. The post-pandemic auto-buying surge is over, yet vehicle sales rose in July to 16.3 million units. See page 6. However, this remains well below 17-18 million units consistently seen between 2014 and 2020. Autos, along with housing, have been the most unwavering drivers of the US economy. We will be watching closely to see if higher financing rates slow auto sales.

Consumer sentiment can be a guiding indicator of the economy at both peaks and troughs, so it is worth noting that August’s deterioration in sentiment surveys follows months of steady improvement. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell in August, dragged down by future expectations due in large part to rising gas prices. It was the first month-over-month decline since May for this survey. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell from 114.0 to 106.1 in August as both present conditions and expectations fell significantly. See page 7. We had been hopeful that the improvement seen in real wages in recent months would give a boost to investor sentiment and consumption, however, we may have been too optimistic.

Important economic news will be released this week including the Fed’s favorite inflation benchmark, the personal consumption expenditure deflator. It will be released alongside personal income and real personal consumption for July. Pending home sales may give an insight into whether higher mortgage rates are taking a toll on home buyers. And the week ends on Friday with the employment report, the ISM manufacturing report, and vehicle sales for August. This should give good insight into economic activity and the health of the consumer.

Technical Indicators

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 index, and the Nasdaq Composite index have all tested their 100-day moving averages and are rebounding. This is favorable. The Russell 2000 index tested its 200-day moving average and is also rebounding. We would rate these tests as tentatively positive; but even if successful, the longer-term pattern remains characteristic of a long-term neutral trading range. See page 9.

The 25-day up/down volume oscillator is at a negative 1.10 reading this week, relatively unchanged from a week ago, and at the lower end of its neutral range. This oscillator generated overbought readings in 10 of 22 trading sessions prior to August 1. However, none of these overbought readings lasted the minimum of five consecutive trading days required to confirm an advance in the averages. Strong rallies should also include at least one extremely overbought day which was also missing. However, it is also important to note that the recent rally did not generate new highs in the indices. In short, the recent rally is, to date, an advance within a larger neutral trading range. That is what this indicator has been implying for over twelve months. In our view, this trading range is a substitute for a bear market, and it is likely to persist until inflation is under control and/or earnings growth becomes more predictable and stable.

Gail Dudack

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