US Strategy Weekly: Fed, Russia, Oil, Inflation

Last week’s FOMC meeting resulted in no major surprises, in our view. The Fed used its January meeting to prepare the global financial markets for quantitative easing that would end by March and for its balance sheet to probably shrink later in 2022. But most importantly, Chairman Jerome Powell was quite clear in his statements that interest rates would begin to rise in March and likely do so for most of the year.

In the wake of this meeting, pundits began to speculate about the number of rate increases investors should expect in 2022. In our opinion, these guesstimates are not useful because we agree with the Fed’s comment that tightening policy going forward will be data dependent. Yet, since the Fed is behind the curve, we would not be surprised if the first fed funds rate hike is 50 basis points. This double-hike would help jumpstart the Fed’s inflation-fighting cycle. It might startle the markets, but it will also dampen the expectations of inflation that has become embedded in the economy.

Unfortunately, we would not be surprised if the Fed’s tightening strategy becomes more complicated later in the year with a combination of inflation that remains stubbornly high, coupled with an economy that shows signs of deceleration. We have often discussed the problems that inflation poses to equities — rising interest rates, multiple compression, profit margin weakness — another risk is that it weakens broad-based consumption. For 2022, we are recommending sectors that are relatively insulated from these risks, such as energy, financials, and staples. Part of this reason is that as the cost of necessities such as heating fuel, gasoline, and food continue to rise, consumers will have less and less money to spend on luxuries such as vacations, new clothes, and entertainment. The net result will be declining revenues for a variety of companies. We expect to hear debates about stagflation in the coming months, but there is no reason to expect this to materialize in 2022. The actual definition of stagflation is an economy characterized by rising inflation and rising unemployment. This was last seen in the 1970s during the oil embargo. We do not see unemployment rising; we simply see a challenging time ahead for corporate earnings.

There are some similarities between the 1970s and the current situation, but they are curable. Instead of an oil embargo that created an energy crisis in the 1970s, The Paris Agreement on global climate change signed in 2021, triggered a sharp rise in fossil fuel regulation and a subsequent decline in energy supply. In short, the current situation is different because it is self-imposed, but we are not sure if this matters. The decline in the supply of fossil fuels is a bigger driver of global inflation than supply disruptions, in our judgment. Yet we doubt this will change the minds of our global leaders.

Furthermore, the price of oil is exacerbated by geopolitics and the fear that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine. As a result, the WTI crude oil future, at $88.36 a barrel currently, is up 17.5% since the end of 2021 and up 44% YOY. See page 10. It should also be noted that Russia is a major beneficiary of the rise in oil prices.

This means inflation will be very difficult to control, at least in the first half of this year, and the Fed has a challenging task ahead of it.

The Good News

January closed the month with declines of 3.3%, 5.3%, 9.0%, and 9.7%, in the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 index, respectively. Moreover, the Nasdaq Composite has experienced an 11.3% decline from its all-time high and the Russell 2000 has dropped 17% from its record high. In short, the broad market is clearly in a correction. We expect the large cap stocks will be the last to fall at the end of the decline; but in the near term, a bounce is likely.  

We show the results of the January Barometer for the Dow Jones Industrials on page 3 and for the S&P 500 on page 4. We have faith in this Wall Street adage that states “As goes January, so goes the year” because we believe the liquidity available to the equity market tends to be at its best in January. However, we must admit that the barometer has a far better track record when January posts a gain than when it posts a loss. A January gain in the Dow Jones Industrials has been followed by a full year gain 89% of the time. In the S&P 500, a January gain has produced an annual gain 88% of the time. But declines in January are much less predictive. In the Dow Jones Industrials, a loss in the first month of the year is followed by an annual loss 54% of the time and in the S&P 500, 47% of the time. In sum, one should not be bearish based upon the January Barometer.  

It is also good news that the stock market has not displayed the characteristics of a classic bubble top. The key to a true bubble is leverage and most importantly, an escalation in leverage. While margin debt has grown markedly in the last 24 months, it has not grown at the pace seen at most major tops. See page 5. The 2-month rate of change in margin debt grew more than 15% in December 2020, as we reported at that time, but margin debt actually contracted in November and December of last year. This is positive since it limits the leverage, and risk of margin calls in the current environment.

Economic Releases

In our view, subtle signs of decelerating economic growth are already appearing. For the third consecutive month, January’s ISM manufacturing index fell, declining from 58.8 in December to 57.6. However, it does remain comfortably above the neutral 50 level. Vehicle sales fell more than 4% in December to an annualized rate of 12.45 million and are down a disturbing 32% from the April 2021 pace of 18.78 million units. See page 6. January’s consumer sentiment indices were glum with the Conference Board Confidence index slipping from 115.2 to 113.8 and the University of Michigan headline reading falling from 70.6 to 68.8. The only uptick in sentiment was found in the Conference Board’s present conditions index which moved up from 144.8 to 148.2. See page 7. New home sales came in stronger than expected in December, increasing nearly 12% to 811,000 units. However, this rebound followed a sharp decline in new single-family home sales in 2021. Existing home sales were more resilient than new home sales last year, but there are signs in both data series that prices are rolling over. See page 8. This should not be a surprise given the recent gains in home prices and the fact that interest rates will be moving higher.

Technical Review

There were not a lot of changes in the technical indicators this week, but the 10-day average of daily new highs fell to 54 which is notable. Daily new lows rose to a 10-day average of 505. This indicator is now clearly negative, after tilting negative for several weeks. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line’s last record high was on November 8, 2021, and it is trading well below this level currently. Volume has not been rising on declines, which is a worrisome trend. On the plus side, AAII bearish sentiment rose 6.2 points to 52.9%, this week and is above the historical average of 30.5% for the tenth consecutive week. This was the highest reading since April 2013. As a result, the AAII bull/bear spread index is positive for the second consecutive week. Note, AAII never displayed the extreme bullishness that is typical of a major, or bubble, peak. This is a good sign for the longer term.

Gail Dudack

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